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UL Monroe vs. Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Sep 6, 11:45 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ALA | 21 | 21 | 10 | 21 | 73 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ALA 1755
ULM 1281
Projected spread
ALA -21.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
ALA
94% to win
Market spread
ALA -34
sportsbook line
Model edge
ULM
12.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
94%
ALA (no market)
Our model blends Elo ratings (ALA Elo 1755, ULM Elo 1281) plus home-field advantage. That projects ALA -21.4 (94% to win) — 12.6 points of value on ULM versus the market line of -34.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ALA (top)ULM (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ALA 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
ULM2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedALA
Offense
0.09
PPA / play
0.2036%
Success rate
43%1.41
Explosiveness
1.273.19
Pts / opportunity
4.0478%
Power success
67%Defense
0.19
PPA allowed / play
0.0841%
Success rate allowed
38%1.36
Explosiveness allowed
1.2414%
Havoc rate
18%18%
Stuff rate
19%Key matchups · Pro
- ULM pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. ALA pass defense (0.11 allowed) — edge ULM.
- ALA rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. ULM rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge ULM.
- ULM rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. ALA rush defense (0.10 allowed) — edge ALA.
Drive-by-drive
ULM 0/12 scoring drives← own end zone →ALA 11/11 scoring drives
ALATD5 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1
ULMPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 20Q1
ALATD5 pl, 39 yds· opp 39Q1
ULMPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 15Q1
ALATD5 pl, 23 yds· opp 23Q1
ULMPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 30Q1
ALATD6 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1
ULMINT3 pl, 7 yds· own 21Q2
ALATD5 pl, 39 yds· opp 39Q2
ULMPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 6Q2
ALATD10 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q2
ULMEND2 pl, 11 yds· own 25Q2
ULMPUNT4 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q3
ALAFG12 pl, 48 yds· own 24Q3
ULMPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q3
ALATD10 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q3
ULMFUM5 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q3
ALATD3 pl, 19 yds· opp 19Q4
ULMDOWNS7 pl, 31 yds· own 25Q4
ALATD6 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q4
ULMFUM8 pl, 35 yds· own 25Q4
ALATD3 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q4
ULMEND3 pl, 19 yds· own 35Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ALA up 52 entering the 4th quarter. Across 41 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
ALA went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of UL Monroe vs. Alabama?
UL Monroe 0, Alabama 73.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ALA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ALA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.