UL Monroe vs. Alabama: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ULMTeam statsALA
- Q4 1:02ALAAK Dear 56 Yd Run (Peter Notaro Kick)0–73
- Q4 6:07ALAMJ Chirgwin 20 Yd pass from Keelon Russell (Peter Notaro Kick)0–66
- Q4 12:46ALACole Adams 18 Yd pass from Keelon Russell (Peter Notaro Kick)0–59
- Q3 0:17ALAJosh Cuevas 3 Yd pass from Austin Mack (Peter Notaro Kick)0–52
- Q3 6:20ALAConor Talty 46 Yd Field Goal 0–45
- Q2 0:31ALAIsaiah Horton 29 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)0–42
- Q2 9:20ALAKaleb Edwards 6 Yd pass from Austin Mack (Conor Talty Kick)0–35
- Q2 13:04ALATy Simpson 8 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)0–28
- Q1 3:18ALARichard Young 3 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)0–21
- Q1 8:10ALAGermie Bernard 16 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:02ALAGermie Bernard 29 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassAidan Armenta 8/14, 28 YDS, 1 INT
- RushBam McReynolds 7 CAR, 24 YDS
- RecTyler Griffin 2 REC, 22 YDS
- PassTy Simpson 17/17, 226 YDS, 3 TD
- RushAK Dear 5 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGermie Bernard 3 REC, 67 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsALA up 52 entering the 4th quarter. Across 41 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of UL Monroe vs. Alabama?
UL Monroe 0, Alabama 73.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ALA) was correct.
| ULM | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| 148 | Total yards | 583 |
| 55 | Passing yards | 371 |
| 93 | Rushing yards | 212 |
| 9 | First downs | 29 |
| 6-14 | 3rd down | 9-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 10/18 | Comp/Att | 29/33 |
| 3.1 | Yards per pass | 11.2 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-41 | Penalties | 5-55 |
| 25:46 | Possession | 34:14 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:02ALAAK Dear 56 Yd Run (Peter Notaro Kick)0–73
- Q4 6:07ALAMJ Chirgwin 20 Yd pass from Keelon Russell (Peter Notaro Kick)0–66
- Q4 12:46ALACole Adams 18 Yd pass from Keelon Russell (Peter Notaro Kick)0–59
- Q3 0:17ALAJosh Cuevas 3 Yd pass from Austin Mack (Peter Notaro Kick)0–52
- Q3 6:20ALAConor Talty 46 Yd Field Goal 0–45
- Q2 0:31ALAIsaiah Horton 29 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)0–42
- Q2 9:20ALAKaleb Edwards 6 Yd pass from Austin Mack (Conor Talty Kick)0–35
- Q2 13:04ALATy Simpson 8 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)0–28
- Q1 3:18ALARichard Young 3 Yd Run (Conor Talty Kick)0–21
- Q1 8:10ALAGermie Bernard 16 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:02ALAGermie Bernard 29 Yd pass from Ty Simpson (Conor Talty Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ALA Elo 1755, ULM Elo 1281 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ALA -21.4 (91% to win) — 12.6 points clear of ULM's market line of -34. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ULM | ALA | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.2 (#108) | CORE overall | +20.6 (#14) |
| -8 / +7 | offense / defense | +7 / -13 |
| 1.37 | points / drive | 2.62 |
| 2.91 | allowed / drive | 1.94 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -8 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →