UCLA vs. USC: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UCLATeam statsUSC
- Q4 2:29USCKi. Miller run for 41 yds, for a TD (J. Maiava pass to W. Lyons GOOD for Two-Point Conversion) (G. Roy pass to W. Lyons GOOD for Two-Point Conversion)10–29
- Q4 11:24USCJ. Maiava pass to L. McRee for 2 yds, for a TD (R. Sayeri KICK)10–21
- Q3 0:25USCJ. Maiava pass to M. Lemon for 32 yds, for a TD (R. Sayeri KICK)10–14
- Q2 0:18UCLAMateen Bhaghani 38 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 11:23UCLAKwazi Gilmer 2 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:15USCKing Miller 5 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassNico Iamaleava 27/38, 200 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJalen Berger 7 CAR, 57 YDS
- RecKwazi Gilmer 10 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJayden Maiava 21/29, 257 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKing Miller 17 CAR, 124 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJa'Kobi Lane 3 REC, 52 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSC up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 0:25USC +20%
Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete deep right to #6 M.Lemon caught at UCLA00, for 32 yards to the UCLA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UCLA Pass Interference declined
- Q3 5:17UCLA +12%
#49 W.Karoll punt 33 yards to the USC09 fair catch by #6 M.Lemon at USC09
- Q2 0:18UCLA +11%
#94 M.Bhaghani field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD
- Q3 12:15USC +7%
Shotgun #6 A.Woods rush left for 8 yards gain to the UCLA33 (#24 C.Pierce), out of bounds
- Q4 11:24USC +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short right to #87 L.McRee caught at UCLA00, for 2 yards to the UCLA00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 5:03USC +6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 J.Maiava pass complete short middle to #85 W.Lyons caught at USC13, for 8 yards to the USC17 (#21 C.Martin; #32 I.Chisom)
FAQ
What was the final score of UCLA vs. USC?
UCLA 10, USC 29.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
| UCLA | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| 308 | Total yards | 388 |
| 200 | Passing yards | 257 |
| 108 | Rushing yards | 131 |
| 20 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 6-9 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 27/38 | Comp/Att | 21/29 |
| 5.3 | Yards per pass | 8.9 |
| 4.2 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-49 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 33:16 | Possession | 26:44 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:18 UCLA field goal on 4th & 1 at USC 20. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.82 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:29USCKi. Miller run for 41 yds, for a TD (J. Maiava pass to W. Lyons GOOD for Two-Point Conversion) (G. Roy pass to W. Lyons GOOD for Two-Point Conversion)10–29
- Q4 11:24USCJ. Maiava pass to L. McRee for 2 yds, for a TD (R. Sayeri KICK)10–21
- Q3 0:25USCJ. Maiava pass to M. Lemon for 32 yds, for a TD (R. Sayeri KICK)10–14
- Q2 0:18UCLAMateen Bhaghani 38 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q2 11:23UCLAKwazi Gilmer 2 Yd pass from Nico Iamaleava (Mateen Bhaghani Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:15USCKing Miller 5 Yd Run (Ryon Sayeri Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USC Elo 1898, UCLA Elo 1313 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USC -25.8 (94% to win) — 4.3 points clear of USC's market line of -21.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUSC leads 54–34–7 · USC has won 2 straight · 46% have been one-possession games
| UCLA | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.4 (#84) | CORE overall | +22.5 (#10) |
| -2 / +4 | offense / defense | +18 / -4 |
| 1.90 | points / drive | 3.53 |
| 3.43 | allowed / drive | 2.14 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 14% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →