| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| USC | 7 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 29 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (USC Elo 1898, UCLA Elo 1313) plus home-field advantage. That projects USC -25.8 (97% to win) — 4.3 points of value on USC versus the market line of -21.5.
USC up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UCLA 10, USC 29.
Yes — the model's pick (USC) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had USC pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(07:37) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava pass complete short middle to #2 T.Mokiao-Atimalala caught at USC45, for 24 yards to the USC40 (#28 K.Urlacher), 1ST DOWN
(00:51) Shotgun #9 N.Iamaleava sacked for loss of 5 yards to the USC11 (#31 J.Walker), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
(02:36) Shotgun #30 K.Miller rush left for 41 yards gain to the UCLA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:29, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#8 J.Lane) 15 yards from UCLA00 to UCLA03 #85 W.Lyons pass attempt Successful #28 G.Roy pass attempt Successful
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