UCLA
3-4·Big Ten· Elo 1448
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| IU | 14 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 56 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (IU Elo 2017, UCLA Elo 1448) plus home-field advantage. That projects IU -25.2 (97% to win), essentially in line with the market.
IU up 43 entering the 4th quarter. Across 212 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
UCLA 6, Indiana 56.
Yes — the model's pick (IU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had IU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(04:24) Shotgun #15 F.Mendoza pass complete deep right to #7 E.Williams Jr. caught at UCL26, for 62 yards to the UCL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:13, 1ST DOWN #15 N.Radicic kick attempt good (H: #44 M.McCarthy, LS: #47 M.Langston)
End of 2nd quarter.
(04:28) Shotgun #16 A.Mendoza pass intercepted by #4 K.Lawrence at UCL01 #4 K.Lawrence return 27 yards to the UCL28, End Of Play
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