UC Davis vs. Washington: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UC Davis
Washington1-0
▸Final
Husky Stadium
UC DTeam statsWASH
218Total yards628
142Pass304
76Rush324
13First downs34
4-123rd down11-13
1Turnovers0
24:52Possession35:08
- Q4 3:02WASHAdam Mohammed 4 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)10–70
- Q4 13:52WASHKai Horton 10 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)10–63
- Q3 4:33WASHDezmen Roebuck 47 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)10–56
- Q3 11:31WASHJonah Coleman 5 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)10–49
- Q2 1:43WASHDenzel Boston 78 Yd Punt Return (Grady Gross Kick)10–42
- Q2 2:36WASHJonah Coleman 7 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)10–35
- Q2 5:28UC DMatteo Perez 1 Yd pass from Caden Pinnick (Hunter Ridley Kick)10–28
- Q2 5:51UC DC. Pinnick pass to I. Simpson for 4 yds for a TD9–28
- Q2 10:27WASHJonah Coleman 9 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)3–28
- Q2 14:51WASHDemond Williams Jr. 8 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)3–21
- Q1 5:35UC DHunter Ridley 45 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 8:28WASHJonah Coleman 1 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:17WASHJonah Coleman 15 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
WASH −28.5
Against the number
WASH covered
line WASH −28.5
What the numbers say
- UC D played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WASH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.1 vs 3rd & 5.7
- UC D lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 30% success rate
Kickoff145 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
WASH (top)UC D (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WASH 100%
Closing line
WASH −28.5
Closing total
54.5
Model line
—
Actual result
UC D 10 – 70 WASH
UC Davis
- PassCaden Pinnick 8/16, 50 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushCarter Vargas 5 CAR, 43 YDS
- RecMitchell Dixon 2 REC, 44 YDS
Washington
- PassDemond Williams Jr. 16/25, 254 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJonah Coleman 15 CAR, 111 YDS, 5 TD
- RecDezmen Roebuck 4 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
27.4sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
131
Points / snap
0.61
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWASH up 46 entering the 4th quarter. Across 107 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
WASH went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of UC Davis vs. Washington?
UC Davis 10, Washington 70.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WASH) was correct.
UC D
WASH
30%
Success rate
59%
0.07
EPA / pass
0.48
0.03
EPA / rush
0.77
27%
Early-down success
52%
36%
Pass success
50%
20%
Rush success
65%
13%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
17%
5%
Stuffed rush rate
10%
62%
Pass rate
39%
9.1
Avg 3rd-down distance
5.7
UC D
9.1 yards to go on 3rd down
53 scrimmage snaps
WASH
5.7 yards to go on 3rd down
78 scrimmage snaps
| UC D | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| 218 | Total yards | 628 |
| 142 | Passing yards | 304 |
| 76 | Rushing yards | 324 |
| 13 | First downs | 34 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 11-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 14/28 | Comp/Att | 19/30 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 10.1 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 7.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-65 | Penalties | 5-65 |
| 24:52 | Possession | 35:08 |
UC D
7/8 with the model
−0.5 pts · −0.0% win prob
WASH
2/2 with the model
nothing given up
Costliest call
Q3 9:22 UC D go for it on 4th & 6 at UC D 29. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.49 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishUC D 3/11 scoring drives← own end zone →WASH 9/9 scoring drives
UC DPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 25Q1
WASHTD3 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q1
UC DPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1
WASHTD6 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q1
UC DFG8 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q1
WASHTD12 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q1
UC DINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 32Q2
WASHTD11 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q2
UC DTD8 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2
WASHTD6 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2
UC DTD3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q2
UC DEND4 pl, 18 yds· own 3Q2
WASHTD9 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q3
UC DPUNT7 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q3
WASHTD7 pl, 90 yds· own 10Q3
UC DPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q3
WASHTD9 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q3
UC DPUNT6 pl, 29 yds· own 25Q4
WASHTD13 pl, 93 yds· own 7Q4
UC DEND7 pl, 44 yds· own 25Q4
- Q4 3:02WASHAdam Mohammed 4 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)10–70
- Q4 13:52WASHKai Horton 10 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)10–63
- Q3 4:33WASHDezmen Roebuck 47 Yd pass from Demond Williams Jr. (Grady Gross Kick)10–56
- Q3 11:31WASHJonah Coleman 5 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)10–49
- Q2 1:43WASHDenzel Boston 78 Yd Punt Return (Grady Gross Kick)10–42
- Q2 2:36WASHJonah Coleman 7 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)10–35
- Q2 5:28UC DMatteo Perez 1 Yd pass from Caden Pinnick (Hunter Ridley Kick)10–28
- Q2 5:51UC DC. Pinnick pass to I. Simpson for 4 yds for a TD9–28
- Q2 10:27WASHJonah Coleman 9 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)3–28
- Q2 14:51WASHDemond Williams Jr. 8 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)3–21
- Q1 5:35UC DHunter Ridley 45 Yd Field Goal 3–14
- Q1 8:28WASHJonah Coleman 1 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:17WASHJonah Coleman 15 Yd Run (Grady Gross Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →