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UAB vs. Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Sep 20, 4:45 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAB | 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 24 |
| TENN | 21 | 21 | 14 | 0 | 56 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TENN 1809
UAB 1307
Projected spread
TENN -22.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
TENN
95% to win
Market spread
TENN -39
sportsbook line
Model edge
UAB
16.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
95%
TENN (no market)
Our model blends Elo ratings (TENN Elo 1809, UAB Elo 1307) plus home-field advantage. That projects TENN -22.5 (95% to win) — 16.5 points of value on UAB versus the market line of -39.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
TENN (top)UAB (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TENN 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
UAB2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedTENN
Offense
0.19
PPA / play
0.3342%
Success rate
51%1.33
Explosiveness
1.273.63
Pts / opportunity
4.6971%
Power success
85%Defense
0.34
PPA allowed / play
0.1649%
Success rate allowed
44%1.29
Explosiveness allowed
1.1612%
Havoc rate
18%14%
Stuff rate
20%Key matchups · Pro
- TENN pass offense (0.41 PPA) vs. UAB pass defense (0.52 allowed) — edge UAB.
- UAB rush offense (0.17 PPA) vs. TENN rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge UAB.
- UAB pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. TENN pass defense (0.22 allowed) — edge UAB.
Drive-by-drive
UAB 5/14 scoring drives← own end zone →TENN 7/12 scoring drives
TENNTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
UABUncateg3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q1
TENNTD2 pl, 50 yds· midfieldQ0
UABPUNT4 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q1
TENNINT7 pl, 26 yds· own 10Q1
UABPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 38Q1
TENNTD5 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q1
UABPUNT6 pl, 19 yds· own 8Q1
TENNTD10 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q2
UABTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
TENNTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
UABDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q2
TENNTD4 pl, 33 yds· opp 33Q2
UABEND3 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q2
UABPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q3
UABFG4 pl, 4 yds· opp 31Q3
TENNTD5 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q3
UABINT7 pl, 25 yds· own 40Q3
TENNPUNT4 pl, 14 yds· own 33Q3
UABTD4 pl, 14 yds· own 9Q3
UABTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
TENNPUNT9 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q3
UABPUNT4 pl, 27 yds· own 22Q4
TENNPUNT4 pl, 16 yds· own 20Q4
UABTD14 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q4
TENNEND4 pl, 56 yds· own 25Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TENN up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 218 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
TENN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of UAB vs. Tennessee?
UAB 24, Tennessee 56.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TENN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TENN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.