UAB vs. Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UABTeam statsTENN
- Q4 0:48UABIsaiah Jacobs 1 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)24–56
- Q3 1:24UABKaleb Brown 61 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)17–56
- Q3 2:37TENNKaleb Beasley 23 Yd Fumble Return (Max Gilbert Kick)10–56
- Q3 9:53TENNStar Thomas 17 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)10–49
- Q3 12:06UABJonah Delange 45 Yd Field Goal 10–42
- Q2 0:32TENNDeSean Bishop 2 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)7–42
- Q2 2:50TENNPeyton Lewis 32 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)7–35
- Q2 7:34UABBrandon Hawkins Jr. 30 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)7–28
- Q2 10:44TENNStar Thomas 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)0–28
- Q1 4:01TENNDeSean Bishop 3 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)0–21
- Q1 11:05TENNMike Matthews 39 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:56TENNChris Brazzell II 19 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassJalen Kitna 38/51, 364 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushIsaiah Jacobs 6 CAR, 19 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKaleb Brown 4 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJoey Aguilar 15/22, 218 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushPeyton Lewis 11 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChris Brazzell II 5 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTENN up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 218 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of UAB vs. Tennessee?
UAB 24, Tennessee 56.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TENN) was correct.
| UAB | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 394 | Total yards | 510 |
| 371 | Passing yards | 275 |
| 23 | Rushing yards | 235 |
| 18 | First downs | 28 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 39/52 | Comp/Att | 18/30 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 9.2 |
| 1.2 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 13-110 | Penalties | 5-50 |
| 33:52 | Possession | 26:08 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:09 UAB punt on 4th & 3 at UAB 27. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.09 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:48UABIsaiah Jacobs 1 Yd Run (Jonah Delange Kick)24–56
- Q3 1:24UABKaleb Brown 61 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)17–56
- Q3 2:37TENNKaleb Beasley 23 Yd Fumble Return (Max Gilbert Kick)10–56
- Q3 9:53TENNStar Thomas 17 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)10–49
- Q3 12:06UABJonah Delange 45 Yd Field Goal 10–42
- Q2 0:32TENNDeSean Bishop 2 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)7–42
- Q2 2:50TENNPeyton Lewis 32 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)7–35
- Q2 7:34UABBrandon Hawkins Jr. 30 Yd pass from Jalen Kitna (Jonah Delange Kick)7–28
- Q2 10:44TENNStar Thomas 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)0–28
- Q1 4:01TENNDeSean Bishop 3 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)0–21
- Q1 11:05TENNMike Matthews 39 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:56TENNChris Brazzell II 19 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TENN Elo 1809, UAB Elo 1307 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TENN -22.5 (92% to win) — 16.5 points clear of UAB's market line of -39. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| UAB | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.8 (#112) | CORE overall | +15.0 (#26) |
| -4 / +11 | offense / defense | +16 / +1 |
| 2.12 | points / drive | 3.27 |
| 3.61 | allowed / drive | 2.38 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →