Tulane
6-1·American Athletic· Elo 1588
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TULN | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 26 |
| UTSA | 10 | 21 | 7 | 10 | 48 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UTSA Elo 1470, TULN Elo 1588) plus home-field advantage. That projects UTSA +2.3 (43% to win) — 3.7 points of value on UTSA versus the market line of +6.
UTSA up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Tulane 26, UTSA 48.
No — the model picked TULN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had TULN pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Retzlaff pass intercepted by #14 J.Lewis at UTSA04 QB hurried by #98 J.Buxton #14 J.Lewis return 37 yards to the UTSA41 (#88 J.Reid), out of bounds
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Retzlaff pass complete deep right to #4 J.Calloway caught at UTSA10, for 41 yards to the UTSA10 (#7 J.Wyrick), 1ST DOWN
(13:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete deep right to #1 D.McCuin caught at TULANE39, for 35 yards to the TULANE24 (#3 J.White), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
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