| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TULN | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| MISS | 14 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 41 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MISS Elo 1960, TULN Elo 1627) plus home-field advantage. That projects MISS -15.7 (88% to win), essentially in line with the market.
MISS up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Tulane 10, Ole Miss 41.
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MISS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(08:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Retzlaff pass intercepted by #2 J.Braxton at OM10 QB hurried by #1 P.Umanmielen #2 J.Braxton return 15 yards to the OM25 (#15 Z.Lewis Jr.) PENALTY TU Horse Collar Tackle (#15 Z.Lewis Jr.) 15 yards from OM25 to OM40, 1ST DOWN
(01:59) Shotgun #13 A.Simmons pass complete deep left to #88 D.Price caught at TU41, for 35 yards to the TU32 (#32 B.Despanie), 1ST DOWN
(01:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Retzlaff pass complete short left to #7 S.Preston caught at TU30, for 57 yards to the OM25 (#14 K.Gushiken), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
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