| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| JMU | 3 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (JMU Elo 1937, TROY Elo 1377) plus home-field advantage. That projects JMU -24.8 (97% to win), essentially in line with the market.
JMU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Troy 14, James Madison 31.
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had JMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(13:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 73 yards gain to the TROY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:41, 1ST DOWN #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard)
(09:45) Shotgun #9 G.Crowder pass complete deep left to #7 R.Thomas caught at TROY48, for 43 yards to the JMU42 (#2 E.Culp), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
(03:24) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease sacked for loss of 10 yards to the TROY22 (#15 S.West), fumble by #10 T.Kilcrease recovered by JMU #56 D.Spinogatti at TROY22 #56 D.Spinogatti return 22 yards to the TROY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:17 #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard)
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