Troy vs. James Madison: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Troy8-4

James Madison11-1

▸

Final

Bridgeforth Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
TROY	0	14	0	0	14
JMU	3	14	0	14	31

TROYTeam statsJMU

177Total yards411

203Pass93

-26Rush318

12First downs19

4-183rd down2-14

1Turnovers2

29:26Possession30:34

Q4 3:17JMUDrew Spinogatti 22 Yd Fumble Recovery (Morgan Suarez Kick)14–31
Q4 4:11JMUAlonza Barnett III 26 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)14–24
Q2 2:12TROYTae Meadows 2 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)14–17
Q2 6:56JMUBraeden Wisloski 26 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Morgan Suarez Kick)7–17
Q2 13:41JMUWayne Knight 73 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)7–10
Q2 14:01TROYGoose Crowder 1 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)7–3
Q1 1:55JMUMorgan Suarez 40 Yd Field Goal 0–3

How the model called it

Model line

JMU −24.8

market JMU −24

Biggest swing

JMU +12%

Q4 6:30

Against the number

TROY covered

line JMU −24

JMU favored ↑50%TROY favored ↓

GridpexJMU 100%

Closing line

JMU −24

Closing total

47.5

Model line

JMU −24.8

Actual result

TROY 14 – 31 JMU

DraftKings, liveJMU −24.50.5 toward JMUtotal 47.5

Troy

PassGoose Crowder 15/34, 196 YDS
RushTae Meadows 7 CAR, 10 YDS, 1 TD
RecRaRa Thomas 3 REC, 82 YDS

James Madison

PassAlonza Barnett III 10/25, 93 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
RushWayne Knight 21 CAR, 212 YDS, 1 TD
RecBraeden Wisloski 2 REC, 31 YDS, 1 TD

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

JMU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

61%

JMU went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

LMerrimack vs Holy Cross24-49 LPurdue vs Fresno State35-39 LRichmond vs Morgan State10-17 WBoston College vs Holy Cross31-28 LNorth Texas vs Florida International39-48

Q4 6:30JMU +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush middle for 7 yards gain to the JMU24 (#14 D.Daniel-Sisavanh)
Q4 9:59TROY +9%
PENALTY TROY False Start (#74 T.Townsend) 5 yards from TROY37 to TROY32. NO PLAY
Q4 4:11JMU +8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush middle for 26 yards gain to the TROY00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
Q2 2:12TROY +7%
#22 T.Meadows rush middle for 2 yards gain to the JMU00 TOUCHDOWN
Q3 1:30TROY +6%
#28 E.Crenshaw punt 48 yards to the JMU00, Touchback
Q3 1:21JMU +5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Barnett III rush left for 21 yards gain to the JMU41 (#14 D.Daniel-Sisavanh), 1ST DOWN

FAQ

What was the final score of Troy vs. James Madison?

Troy 14, James Madison 31.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.

TROY

JMU

29%

Success rate

40%

-0.09

EPA / pass

-0.34

-0.14

EPA / rush

0.36

31%

Early-down success

45%

28%

Pass success

29%

30%

Rush success

49%

11%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

15%

35%

Stuffed rush rate

13%

71%

Pass rate

42%

9.7

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.3

TROY

9.7 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

JMU

8.3 yards to go on 3rd down

67 scrimmage snaps

TROY		JMU
177	Total yards	411
203	Passing yards	93
-26	Rushing yards	318
12	First downs	19
4-18	3rd down	2-14
0-2	4th down	1-2
16/39	Comp/Att	10/25
5.2	Yards per pass	3.7
-0.9	Yards per rush	7.6
1	Turnovers	2
4-45	Penalties	7-80
29:26	Possession	30:34

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

JMU 1937

TROY 1377

Projected spread

JMU -24.8

incl. home edge

Model pick

JMU

94% to win

Market spread

JMU -24

sportsbook line

Model vs market

Agrees

aligned w/ market

Win prob: model / mkt

94%

JMU · market 93%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (JMU Elo 1937, TROY Elo 1377 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects JMU -24.8 (94% to win), essentially in line with the market.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2025

nationally ranked

TROY2025 season · national rank shownJMU

307.2124th

Total yards / game

454.916th

4.6129th

Yards / play

6.521st

209.290th

Passing yards / game

211.188th

98.0131st

Rushing yards / game

243.76th

38.8%80th

3rd down %

46.7%17th

372.665th

Yards allowed / game

267.05th

38.2%58th

3rd down % allowed

29.2%6th

072nd

Turnover margin

+166th

5.647th

Penalties / game

7.5122nd

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Opponent-adjusted profile2025

TROY		JMU
-16.6 (#116)	CORE overall	+20.6 (#13)
-13 / +4	offense / defense	+5 / -16
1.77	points / drive	3.06
1.83	allowed / drive	1.42
30%	three-and-outs	22%
+0	pass over expected	-3

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

Game Info

Kickoff: Fri, Dec 5, 7:00 PM EST
Venue: Bridgeforth Stadium
Setting: Non-conference
Model line: JMU -24.8

The Model's Pick

James Madison

to win · 94%

✓ Hit

Projected spreadJMU -24.8

Market93%

Game Leaders

Troy

Pass Will Crowder15/34, 196 yds, 0 TD
Rush Tae Meadows7 car, 10 yds, 1 TD
Rec Rara Thomas3 rec, 82 yds

James Madison

Pass Alonza Barnett10/25, 93 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rush Wayne Knight21 car, 212 yds, 1 TD
Rec Braeden Wisloski2 rec, 31 yds, 1 TD

Biggest Plays

James Madison+5.9 EPA
(13:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 W.Knight rush middle for 73 yards gain to the TROY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:41, 1ST DOWN #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard)
Troy+4.0 EPA
(09:45) Shotgun #9 G.Crowder pass complete deep left to #7 R.Thomas caught at TROY48, for 43 yards to the JMU42 (#2 E.Culp), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Troy+3.8 EPA
(03:24) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease sacked for loss of 10 yards to the TROY22 (#15 S.West), fumble by #10 T.Kilcrease recovered by JMU #56 D.Spinogatti at TROY22 #56 D.Spinogatti return 22 yards to the TROY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:17 #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 J.Kennard)

TROYTeam statsJMU

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of Troy vs. James Madison?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2025

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Troy vs. James Madison: Final Score & Recap

TROYTeam statsJMU

How the model called it

What was the final score of Troy vs. James Madison?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups