Toledo vs. Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TOLTeam statsUK
- Q4 1:55TOLJunior Vandeross III 20 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)16–24
- Q4 9:22UKDante Dowdell 79 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)9–24
- Q4 9:38TOLTucker Gleason 9 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)9–17
- Q4 12:30UKSeth McGowan 6 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)2–17
- Q2 2:04UKJacob Kauwe 45 Yd Field Goal 2–10
- Q2 13:08TOLLangston Long Safety2–7
- Q1 6:27UKZach Calzada 1 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TOL played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UK did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.4 vs 3rd & 5.2
- PassTucker Gleason 23/40, 270 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushChip Trayanum 14 CAR, 41 YDS
- RecJunior Vandeross III 7 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- PassZach Calzada 10/23, 85 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDante Dowdell 14 CAR, 129 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJosh Kattus 3 REC, 43 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUK up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:58TOL +21%
No Huddle-Shotgun Calzada,Zach pass incomplete short middle to Farrier II,Fred thrown to TOL08, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TOL Pass Interference (Bowers,Nasir) 9 yards from TOL…
- Q2 7:19UK +21%
Dante Dowdell run for 7 yds to the TOL 43
- Q4 9:22UK +12%
Dante Dowdell run for 79 yds for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK)
- Q4 9:38TOL +11%
Tucker Gleason run for 9 yds for a TD (Dylan Cunanan KICK)
- Q4 12:56UK +10%
No Huddle-Shotgun Calzada,Zach pass incomplete deep right to Law,Kendrick thrown to TOL00 PENALTY TOL Pass Interference (Bowers,Nasir) 14 yards from TOL25 to TOL11, 1S…
- Q4 12:30UK +8%
Seth McGowan run for 6 yds for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Toledo vs. Kentucky?
Toledo 16, Kentucky 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UK) was correct.
| TOL | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 329 | Total yards | 305 |
| 270 | Passing yards | 85 |
| 59 | Rushing yards | 220 |
| 17 | First downs | 17 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 23/40 | Comp/Att | 10/23 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 3.7 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 5.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 11-93 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 28:19 | Possession | 31:41 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:03 UK punt on 4th & 10 at TOL 39. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.44 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:55TOLJunior Vandeross III 20 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)16–24
- Q4 9:22UKDante Dowdell 79 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)9–24
- Q4 9:38TOLTucker Gleason 9 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)9–17
- Q4 12:30UKSeth McGowan 6 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)2–17
- Q2 2:04UKJacob Kauwe 45 Yd Field Goal 2–10
- Q2 13:08TOLLangston Long Safety2–7
- Q1 6:27UKZach Calzada 1 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UK Elo 1498, TOL Elo 1454 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UK -4.2 (62% to win) — 5.8 points clear of TOL's market line of -10. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TOL | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.3 (#19) | CORE overall | +5.8 (#52) |
| +3 / -15 | offense / defense | -2 / -8 |
| 2.25 | points / drive | 1.77 |
| 1.17 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →