Toledo
Mid-American· Elo 1454
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 16 |
| UK | 7 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UK Elo 1498, TOL Elo 1454) plus home-field advantage. That projects UK -4.2 (62% to win) — 5.8 points of value on TOL versus the market line of -10.
UK up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Toledo 16, Kentucky 24.
Yes — the model's pick (UK) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UK pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Dante Dowdell run for 79 yds for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK)
Tucker Gleason run for 1 yd to the UK 3
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 14 yds to the UK 38 for a 1ST down
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →