Texas vs. Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TEXTeam statsUK
- OT 0:00TEXMason Shipley 45 Yd Field Goal 16–13
- Q4 0:09UKJacob Kauwe 45 Yd Field Goal 13–13
- Q4 0:57TEXMason Shipley 39 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q4 12:04UKCutter Boley 16 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)10–10
- Q3 2:05TEXMason Shipley 53 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q3 4:09UKJacob Kauwe 46 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q2 6:22TEXQuintrevion Wisner 1 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassArch Manning 12/27, 132 YDS
- RushQuintrevion Wisner 12 CAR, 37 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDeAndre Moore Jr. 3 REC, 37 YDS
- PassCutter Boley 31/39, 258 YDS, 1 INT
- RushCutter Boley 14 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- RecSeth McGowan 7 REC, 68 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEX up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:09UK +87%
Jacob Kauwe 45 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 0:00TEX +85%
A. Manning takes a knee
- OT 0:00TEX +48%
M.Shipley 45 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-L.St. Louis, Holder-J.Bouwmeester
- Q3 0:32UK +36%
Aidan Laros punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Ryan Niblett at the TEX 32
- Q4 2:00TEX +33%
PENALTY UT False Start (Washington,Jordan) 5 yards from UK36 to UK41. NO PLAY
- Q4 12:04UK +29%
Cutter Boley run for 16 yds for a TD (Jacob Kauwe KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas vs. Kentucky?
Texas 16, Kentucky 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
| TEX | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 179 | Total yards | 395 |
| 132 | Passing yards | 258 |
| 47 | Rushing yards | 137 |
| 8 | First downs | 26 |
| 5-16 | 3rd down | 7-18 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 12/27 | Comp/Att | 31/40 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 1.7 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-50 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 20:37 | Possession | 39:23 |
Costliest call
Q1 6:12 UK punt on 4th & 1 at UK 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00TEXMason Shipley 45 Yd Field Goal 16–13
- Q4 0:09UKJacob Kauwe 45 Yd Field Goal 13–13
- Q4 0:57TEXMason Shipley 39 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q4 12:04UKCutter Boley 16 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)10–10
- Q3 2:05TEXMason Shipley 53 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q3 4:09UKJacob Kauwe 46 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q2 6:22TEXQuintrevion Wisner 1 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UK Elo 1513, TEX Elo 1964 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UK +15.6 (16% to win) — 3.1 points clear of TEX's market line of +12.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TEX | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.3 (#28) | CORE overall | +5.8 (#52) |
| +5 / -9 | offense / defense | -2 / -8 |
| 2.55 | points / drive | 1.77 |
| 1.74 | allowed / drive | 2.42 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →