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Texas vs. Kentucky: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 18, 11:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| UK | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UK 1513
TEX 1964
Projected spread
UK +15.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
TEX
88% to win
Market spread
UK +12.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
TEX
3.1 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
12%
UK · market 20%
Our model blends Elo ratings (UK Elo 1513, TEX Elo 1964) plus home-field advantage. That projects UK +15.6 (12% to win) — 3.1 points of value on TEX versus the market line of +12.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
UK (top)TEX (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UK 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
TEX2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedUK
Offense
0.18
PPA / play
0.0840%
Success rate
42%1.37
Explosiveness
1.153.52
Pts / opportunity
3.8463%
Power success
70%Defense
0.10
PPA allowed / play
0.1839%
Success rate allowed
44%1.18
Explosiveness allowed
1.2318%
Havoc rate
15%21%
Stuff rate
20%Key matchups · Pro
- UK rush offense (0.06 PPA) vs. TEX rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge UK.
- TEX pass offense (0.29 PPA) vs. UK pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge UK.
- UK pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. TEX pass defense (0.20 allowed) — edge TEX.
Drive-by-drive
TEX 4/14 scoring drives← own end zone →UK 3/13 scoring drives
UKDOWNS11 pl, 59 yds· own 25Q1
TEXPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 16Q1
UKPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 32Q1
TEXPUNT6 pl, 32 yds· own 13Q1
UKPUNT10 pl, 37 yds· own 19Q1
TEXPUNT7 pl, 42 yds· own 20Q2
UKPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 9Q2
TEXTD3 pl, 5 yds· opp 5Q2
UKINT7 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q2
TEXPUNT5 pl, 7 yds· opp 46Q2
UKMISS8 pl, 55 yds· own 10Q2
TEXEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 35Q2
TEXPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q3
UKFG15 pl, 53 yds· own 19Q3
TEXFG6 pl, 40 yds· own 25Q3
UKPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 21Q3
TEXPUNT3 pl, -13 yds· own 32Q3
UKTD5 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q4
TEXPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q4
UKPUNT5 pl, 28 yds· own 14Q4
TEXPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 24Q4
UKPUNT7 pl, 27 yds· own 17Q4
TEXFG7 pl, 21 yds· opp 42Q4
UKFG7 pl, 46 yds· own 27Q4
TEXEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q4
UKDOWNS5 pl, 24 yds· opp 25OT
TEXEND4 pl, -2 yds· opp 25OT
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TEX up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
TEX went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas vs. Kentucky?
Texas 16, Kentucky 13.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TEX pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.