Sat, Nov 29, 5:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTU | 21 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 49 |
| WVU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (WVU Elo 1355, TTU Elo 1997) plus home-field advantage. That projects WVU +23.3 (4% to win), essentially in line with the market.
TTU up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 170 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Texas Tech 49, West Virginia 0.
Yes — the model's pick (TTU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TTU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(01:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Rodriguez pass intercepted by #15 B.Cutter at WVU00, Touchback
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 S.Fox Jr. pass intercepted by #14 B.Pollock at TTU11, End Of Play
(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Morton pass complete short left to #5 C.Douglas caught at TTU46, for 43 yards to the WVU23 (#6 J.Scruggs), 1ST DOWN
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