Milan Puskar StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTU | 21 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 49 |
| WVU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
WVU 1355
TTU 1997
Projected spread
WVU +23.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
TTU
96% to win
Market spread
WVU +24.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
4%
WVU · market 8%
Our model blends Elo ratings (WVU Elo 1355, TTU Elo 1997) plus home-field advantage. That projects WVU +23.3 (4% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
WVU (top)TTU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WVU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- WVU pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. TTU pass defense (-0.00 allowed) — edge WVU.
- TTU rush offense (0.17 PPA) vs. WVU rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge TTU.
- WVU rush offense (-0.02 PPA) vs. TTU rush defense (-0.16 allowed) — edge WVU.
Drive-by-drive
TTU 7/13 scoring drives← own end zone →WVU 0/12 scoring drives
WVUPUNT3 pl, -9 yds· own 25Q1
TTUTD8 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q1
WVUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TTU up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 170 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
TTU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Texas Tech vs. West Virginia?
Texas Tech 49, West Virginia 0.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TTU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TTU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.