Tennessee Tech vs. Kentucky: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Tennessee Tech

0010

Kentucky4-5

▸0042

Final

Kroger Field

	1	2	3	4	T
TENN	0	7	3	0	10
UK	14	14	7	7	42

TENNTeam statsUK

264Total yards468

121Pass261

143Rush207

15First downs25

4-113rd down4-10

1Turnovers0

27:34Possession32:26

Scoring plays

• Q4 10:37UKDante Dowdell 19 Yd Run (Zach Schreiner Kick)10–42
• Q3 2:24UKHardley Gilmore IV 45 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)10–35
• Q3 9:15TENNDom LeBlanc 38 Yd Field Goal 10–28
• Q2 0:19UKSeth McGowan 1 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)7–28
• Q2 1:18TENNBrian Courtney 8 Yd pass from Kekoa Visperas (Dom LeBlanc Kick)7–21
• Q2 3:46UKSeth McGowan 4 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)0–21
• Q1 2:23UKCutter Boley 30 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)0–14
• Q1 6:55UKSeth McGowan 1 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

UK −23

Against the number

UK covered

line UK −23

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

UK 100%50%TENN 100%

Kickoff142 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

UK (top)TENN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UK 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

UK −23

Closing total

52.0

Model line

—

Actual result

TENN 10 – 42 UK

Leaders

Tennessee Tech

• PassKekoa Visperas 13/21, 112 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
• RushKekoa Visperas 6 CAR, 44 YDS
• RecMaury Sullivan 6 REC, 63 YDS

Kentucky

• PassCutter Boley 18/21, 236 YDS, 1 TD
• RushDante Dowdell 13 CAR, 87 YDS, 1 TD
• RecKendrick Law 11 REC, 124 YDS

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

UK up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

UK went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WUCF vs Kent State56-6WUAB vs North Carolina A&T35-6WFlorida A&M vs Jackson State28-10WOregon State vs San José State42-17WWest Virginia vs Duquesne56-17

Fourth downs

13 calls

TENN gave up 0.4 points to the model on fourth down.TENN 6/7 · UK 6/6 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Tennessee Tech vs. Kentucky?

Tennessee Tech 10, Kentucky 42.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (UK) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

TENN

UK

46%

Success rate

63%

0.10

EPA / pass

0.40

0.05

EPA / rush

0.51

49%

Early-down success

66%

38%

Pass success

57%

53%

Rush success

68%

4%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

13%

22%

Stuffed rush rate

3%

43%

Pass rate

43%

4.9

Avg 3rd-down distance

3.3

TENN

4.9 yards to go on 3rd down

56 scrimmage snaps

UK

3.3 yards to go on 3rd down

70 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

TENN		UK
264	Total yards	468
121	Passing yards	261
143	Rushing yards	207
15	First downs	25
4-11	3rd down	4-10
1-2	4th down	3-4
14/23	Comp/Att	21/27
5.3	Yards per pass	9.7
4.3	Yards per rush	5.3
1	Turnovers	0
6-48	Penalties	3-20
27:34	Possession	32:26

Fourth downs

13 calls

TENN

6/7 with the model

−0.4 pts · −0.0% win prob

UK

6/6 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q4 13:07 TENN go for it on 4th & 6 at UK 26. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.35 points.

Every call, priced (13)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

TENN 2/10 scoring drives← own end zone →UK 6/9 scoring drives

TENNPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1

UKTD11 pl, 88 yds· own 12Q1

TENNPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q1

UKTD6 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q1

TENNMISS10 pl, 61 yds· own 25Q1

UKPUNT5 pl, 13 yds· own 20Q2

TENNINT3 pl, 11 yds· own 20Q2

UKTD9 pl, 51 yds· own 49Q2

TENNTD9 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q2

UKTD4 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q2

TENNEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2

UKPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q3

TENNFG8 pl, 40 yds· own 39Q3

UKTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

TENNDOWNS11 pl, 49 yds· own 25Q3

UKTD5 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q4

TENNPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q4

UKDOWNS11 pl, 61 yds· own 36Q4

TENNEND7 pl, 17 yds· own 3Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 10:37UKDante Dowdell 19 Yd Run (Zach Schreiner Kick)10–42
• Q3 2:24UKHardley Gilmore IV 45 Yd pass from Cutter Boley (Jacob Kauwe Kick)10–35
• Q3 9:15TENNDom LeBlanc 38 Yd Field Goal 10–28
• Q2 0:19UKSeth McGowan 1 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)7–28
• Q2 1:18TENNBrian Courtney 8 Yd pass from Kekoa Visperas (Dom LeBlanc Kick)7–21
• Q2 3:46UKSeth McGowan 4 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)0–21
• Q1 2:23UKCutter Boley 30 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)0–14
• Q1 6:55UKSeth McGowan 1 Yd Run (Jacob Kauwe Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →