Temple vs. North Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TEMTeam statsUNT
- Q4 4:16TEMCarl Hardin 26 Yd Field Goal 25–52
- Q4 8:25UNTCaleb Hawkins 1 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)22–52
- Q4 11:14TEMJay Ducker 5 Yd Run (Gevani McCoy Pass to Ryder Kusch for Two-Point Conversion)22–45
- Q3 0:40UNTTerrence Lewis 13 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)14–45
- Q3 7:07UNTKali Nguma 27 Yd Field Goal 14–38
- Q3 11:39TEMPeter Clarke 16 Yd pass from Jay Ducker (Carl Hardin Kick)14–35
- Q2 1:25UNTCaleb Hawkins 6 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)7–35
- Q2 6:22UNTTerrence Lewis 5 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)7–28
- Q2 10:09UNTCaleb Hawkins 31 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)7–21
- Q1 1:08UNTCaleb Hawkins 5 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:42TEMRyder Kusch 2 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:18UNTCameron Dorner 77 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TEM played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UNT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.1 vs 3rd & 4.9
- PassEvan Simon 10/27, 82 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushHunter Smith 10 CAR, 66 YDS
- RecColin Chase 3 REC, 55 YDS
- PassDrew Mestemaker 20/24, 366 YDS, 3 TD
- RushCaleb Hawkins 25 CAR, 186 YDS, 4 TD
- RecWyatt Young 6 REC, 127 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNT up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 2:42TEM +7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass complete short middle to #33 R.Kusch caught at UNT00, for 2 yards to the UNT00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 1:08UNT +6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #24 C.Hawkins rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TEM00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 8:18UNT +5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short middle to #4 C.Dorner caught at UNT37, for 77 yards to the TEM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under…
FAQ
What was the final score of Temple vs. North Texas?
Temple 25, North Texas 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UNT) was correct.
| TEM | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 316 | Total yards | 605 |
| 144 | Passing yards | 366 |
| 172 | Rushing yards | 239 |
| 18 | First downs | 26 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 6-9 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 13/33 | Comp/Att | 20/24 |
| 4.4 | Yards per pass | 15.3 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-45 | Penalties | 4-25 |
| 31:02 | Possession | 28:58 |
Costliest call
Q3 7:07 UNT field goal on 4th & 2 at TEM 8. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.57 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:16TEMCarl Hardin 26 Yd Field Goal 25–52
- Q4 8:25UNTCaleb Hawkins 1 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)22–52
- Q4 11:14TEMJay Ducker 5 Yd Run (Gevani McCoy Pass to Ryder Kusch for Two-Point Conversion)22–45
- Q3 0:40UNTTerrence Lewis 13 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)14–45
- Q3 7:07UNTKali Nguma 27 Yd Field Goal 14–38
- Q3 11:39TEMPeter Clarke 16 Yd pass from Jay Ducker (Carl Hardin Kick)14–35
- Q2 1:25UNTCaleb Hawkins 6 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)7–35
- Q2 6:22UNTTerrence Lewis 5 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)7–28
- Q2 10:09UNTCaleb Hawkins 31 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)7–21
- Q1 1:08UNTCaleb Hawkins 5 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:42TEMRyder Kusch 2 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:18UNTCameron Dorner 77 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNT Elo 1741, TEM Elo 1234 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNT -22.7 (92% to win) — 2.2 points clear of UNT's market line of -20.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TEM | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.9 (#100) | CORE overall | +11.9 (#34) |
| -3 / +9 | offense / defense | +18 / +6 |
| 2.16 | points / drive | 4.00 |
| 3.17 | allowed / drive | 2.36 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 14% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →