| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEM | 7 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 25 |
| UNT | 14 | 21 | 10 | 7 | 52 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UNT Elo 1741, TEM Elo 1234) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNT -22.7 (95% to win) — 2.2 points of value on UNT versus the market line of -20.5.
UNT up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Temple 25, North Texas 52.
Yes — the model's pick (UNT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UNT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(08:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short middle to #4 C.Dorner caught at UNT37, for 77 yards to the TEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:18, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELD #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates)
(09:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete deep middle to #10 W.Young caught at TEM33, for 75 yards to the TEM06 (#13 D.Chavis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
(07:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 E.Simon pass complete deep middle to #17 J.Bermudez caught at UNT42, for 34 yards to the UNT42 QB hurried by #94 J.Williams (#12 P.Smith-Young), 1ST DOWN
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