Temple vs. Massachusetts: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TEMTeam statsMASS
- Q4 6:26TEMRyder Kusch 2 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)42–10
- Q4 12:39TEMRyder Kusch 3 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)35–10
- Q2 0:59TEMTerrez Worthy 13 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)28–10
- Q2 5:40TEMPeter Clarke 29 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)21–10
- Q2 11:48TEMKajiya Hollawayne 24 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)14–10
- Q1 1:11MASSDerek Morris 40 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 5:02TEMPeter Clarke 21 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:25MASSRocko Griffin 18 Yd Run (Derek Morris Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MASS played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TEM did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.3 vs 3rd & 5.4
- PassEvan Simon 19/25, 248 YDS, 6 TD
- RushJay Ducker 19 CAR, 128 YDS
- RecJoJo Bermudez 7 REC, 87 YDS
- PassBrandon Rose 23/38, 193 YDS, 1 INT
- RushRocko Griffin 10 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJacquon Gibson 12 REC, 132 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEM up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 838 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Temple vs. Massachusetts?
Temple 42, Massachusetts 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MASS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TEM | MASS | |
|---|---|---|
| 467 | Total yards | 302 |
| 276 | Passing yards | 199 |
| 191 | Rushing yards | 103 |
| 24 | First downs | 18 |
| 9-12 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 22/29 | Comp/Att | 25/40 |
| 9.5 | Yards per pass | 5.0 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | 4.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-57 | Penalties | 5-32 |
| 33:46 | Possession | 26:14 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:23 MASS go for it on 4th & 10 at MASS 35. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.02 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:26TEMRyder Kusch 2 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)42–10
- Q4 12:39TEMRyder Kusch 3 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)35–10
- Q2 0:59TEMTerrez Worthy 13 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)28–10
- Q2 5:40TEMPeter Clarke 29 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)21–10
- Q2 11:48TEMKajiya Hollawayne 24 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)14–10
- Q1 1:11MASSDerek Morris 40 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 5:02TEMPeter Clarke 21 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:25MASSRocko Griffin 18 Yd Run (Derek Morris Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MASS Elo 1193, TEM Elo 1192 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MASS -2.4 (58% to win) — 4.9 points clear of MASS's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TEM | MASS | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.9 (#100) | CORE overall | -40.3 (#136) |
| -3 / +9 | offense / defense | -22 / +18 |
| 2.16 | points / drive | 0.88 |
| 3.17 | allowed / drive | 3.71 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 43% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →