| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | 7 | 13 | 21 | 7 | 48 |
| UNC | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UNC Elo 1497, TCU Elo 1633) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNC +3 (41% to win), essentially in line with the market.
TCU up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
TCU 48, North Carolina 14.
Yes — the model's pick (TCU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TCU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Gio Lopez pass intercepted Bud Clark return for 25 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)
Kevorian Barnes run for 75 yds for a TD (Kyle Lemmermann KICK)
Davion Gause run for no gain to the TCU 24 Davion Gause fumbled, recovered by TCU Zach Chapman
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