TCU vs. North Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TCUTeam statsUNC
- Q4 9:21TCUDJ Rogers 4 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)48–14
- Q3 0:29UNCJake Johnson 2 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Rece Verhoff Kick)41–14
- Q3 6:56TCUDevean Deal 37 Yd Fumble Return (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)41–7
- Q3 8:30TCUTrent Battle 28 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)34–7
- Q3 14:48TCUKevorian Barnes 75 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)27–7
- Q2 0:00TCUKyle Lemmermann 33 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 3:57TCUBud Clark 25 Yd Interception Return (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)17–7
- Q2 11:13TCUKyle Lemmermann 32 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 4:08TCUJordan Dwyer 27 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:55UNCCaleb Hood 8 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNC played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TCU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.4 vs 3rd & 7.1
- UNC lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 35% success rate
- PassJosh Hoover 27/36, 284 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushKevorian Barnes 11 CAR, 113 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJordan Dwyer 9 REC, 136 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMax Johnson 9/11, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCaleb Hood 10 CAR, 31 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJordan Shipp 4 REC, 84 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTCU up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of TCU vs. North Carolina?
TCU 48, North Carolina 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TCU) was correct.
| TCU | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 542 | Total yards | 222 |
| 284 | Passing yards | 172 |
| 258 | Rushing yards | 50 |
| 29 | First downs | 10 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 1-10 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 27/37 | Comp/Att | 13/21 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 8.2 |
| 7.4 | Yards per rush | 1.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-58 | Penalties | 3-25 |
| 32:09 | Possession | 27:51 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:53 UNC punt on 4th & 4 at TCU 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.61 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:21TCUDJ Rogers 4 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)48–14
- Q3 0:29UNCJake Johnson 2 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Rece Verhoff Kick)41–14
- Q3 6:56TCUDevean Deal 37 Yd Fumble Return (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)41–7
- Q3 8:30TCUTrent Battle 28 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)34–7
- Q3 14:48TCUKevorian Barnes 75 Yd Run (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)27–7
- Q2 0:00TCUKyle Lemmermann 33 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 3:57TCUBud Clark 25 Yd Interception Return (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)17–7
- Q2 11:13TCUKyle Lemmermann 32 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 4:08TCUJordan Dwyer 27 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Kyle Lemmermann Kick)7–7
- Q1 10:55UNCCaleb Hood 8 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNC Elo 1497, TCU Elo 1633 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNC +3 (43% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TCU | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.2 (#31) | CORE overall | -10.5 (#97) |
| +6 / -7 | offense / defense | -8 / +3 |
| 2.55 | points / drive | 1.67 |
| 2.13 | allowed / drive | 2.43 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 37% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →