Stephen F. Austin vs. Houston: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Stephen F. Austin

00

Houston

▸0027

Final

TDECU Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
STEP	0	0	0	0	0
HOU	7	10	7	3	27

STEPTeam statsHOU

144Total yards343

105Pass152

39Rush191

7First downs18

3-163rd down7-17

2Turnovers0

25:11Possession34:49

Scoring plays

• Q4 14:06HOUEthan Sanchez 43 Yd Field Goal0–27
• Q3 8:36HOUAmare Thomas 20 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)0–24
• Q2 3:06HOUJ'Marion Burnette 39 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)0–17
• Q2 8:24HOUEthan Sanchez 40 Yd Field Goal0–10
• Q1 5:12HOUTanner Koziol 11 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

HOU −24

Against the number

HOU covered

line HOU −24

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

STEP aheadHOU ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = STEP ahead, below = HOU ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

HOU −24

Closing total

54.5

Model line

—

Actual result

STEP 0 – 27 HOU

Leaders

Stephen F. Austin

• PassGavin Rutherford 4/7, 53 YDS, 1 INT
• RushJaylen Jenkins 5 CAR, 16 YDS
• RecClayton Wayland 2 REC, 43 YDS

Houston

• PassConner Weigman 15/24, 159 YDS, 3 TD
• RushDean Connors 15 CAR, 50 YDS
• RecTanner Koziol 7 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

HOU up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

HOU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WSMU vs Louisiana Tech38-14WIndiana vs Indiana State41-7WPresbyterian vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg48-17WDuke vs Northwestern38-14WArkansas State vs Stony Brook31-7

Fourth downs

21 calls

HOU gave up 1.3 points to the model on fourth down.STEP 9/11 · HOU 8/10 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Stephen F. Austin vs. Houston?

Stephen F. Austin 0, Houston 27.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (HOU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

STEP

HOU

18%

Success rate

33%

-0.31

EPA / pass

0.14

-0.19

EPA / rush

-0.10

20%

Early-down success

30%

16%

Pass success

37%

22%

Rush success

31%

3%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

11%

35%

Stuffed rush rate

27%

62%

Pass rate

40%

8.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

9.0

STEP

8.8 yards to go on 3rd down

61 scrimmage snaps

HOU

9.0 yards to go on 3rd down

75 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

STEP		HOU
144	Total yards	343
105	Passing yards	152
39	Rushing yards	191
7	First downs	18
3-16	3rd down	7-17
0-3	4th down	0-1
17/33	Comp/Att	16/27
3.2	Yards per pass	5.6
1.6	Yards per rush	4.2
2	Turnovers	0
7-60	Penalties	8-65
25:11	Possession	34:49

Fourth downs

21 calls

STEP

9/11 with the model

−0.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

HOU

8/10 with the model

−1.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 8:41 HOU punt on 4th & 1 at HOU 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.

Every call, priced (21)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

STEP 0/14 scoring drives← own end zone →HOU 5/14 scoring drives

STEPPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1

HOUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 40Q1

STEPPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 20Q1

HOUPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 20Q1

STEPPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 10Q1

HOUTD7 pl, 41 yds· opp 41Q1

STEPPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q1

HOUPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 37Q1

STEPDOWNS8 pl, 23 yds· own 32Q2

HOUFG10 pl, 33 yds· own 45Q2

STEPPUNT4 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q2

HOUTD10 pl, 96 yds· own 4Q2

STEPINT5 pl, 22 yds· own 24Q2

HOUDOWNS6 pl, 20 yds· opp 41Q2

STEPEND3 pl, 3 yds· own 21Q2

HOUTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

STEPPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q3

HOUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 28Q3

STEPPUNT4 pl, -27 yds· own 43Q3

HOUPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 35Q3

STEPDOWNS4 pl, 5 yds· own 23Q3

HOUFG4 pl, 3 yds· opp 28Q4

STEPPUNT4 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q4

HOUPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 30Q4

STEPDOWNS7 pl, 20 yds· own 24Q4

HOUPUNT4 pl, -8 yds· opp 44Q4

STEPINT5 pl, 36 yds· own 20Q4

HOUUncateg4 pl, 21 yds· own 34Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 14:06HOUEthan Sanchez 43 Yd Field Goal0–27
• Q3 8:36HOUAmare Thomas 20 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)0–24
• Q2 3:06HOUJ'Marion Burnette 39 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)0–17
• Q2 8:24HOUEthan Sanchez 40 Yd Field Goal0–10
• Q1 5:12HOUTanner Koziol 11 Yd pass from Conner Weigman (Ethan Sanchez Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →