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Stanford vs. SMU: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 11, 4:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STAN | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| SMU | 7 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 34 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SMU 1695
STAN 1255
Projected spread
SMU -20
incl. home edge
Model pick
SMU
93% to win
Market spread
SMU -19.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
93%
SMU · market 88%
Our model blends Elo ratings (SMU Elo 1695, STAN Elo 1255) plus home-field advantage. That projects SMU -20 (93% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
SMU (top)STAN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SMU 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
STAN2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedSMU
Offense
0.06
PPA / play
0.2336%
Success rate
43%1.20
Explosiveness
1.363.02
Pts / opportunity
3.8982%
Power success
79%Defense
0.17
PPA allowed / play
0.0342%
Success rate allowed
40%1.29
Explosiveness allowed
1.1815%
Havoc rate
19%17%
Stuff rate
22%Key matchups · Pro
- SMU rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. STAN rush defense (-0.02 allowed) — edge SMU.
- SMU pass offense (0.40 PPA) vs. STAN pass defense (0.34 allowed) — edge SMU.
- STAN rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. SMU rush defense (-0.08 allowed) — edge STAN.
Drive-by-drive
STAN 3/10 scoring drives← own end zone →SMU 5/10 scoring drives
SMUPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 25Q1
SMUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· midfieldQ1
STANPUNT7 pl, 12 yds· own 8Q1
SMUTD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
STANPUNT4 pl, -2 yds· own 29Q1
SMUFG8 pl, 65 yds· own 20Q1
STANDOWNS18 pl, 73 yds· own 25Q2
SMUTD6 pl, 98 yds· own 2Q2
STANTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q2
SMUEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q2
STANPUNT6 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q3
SMUTD5 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q3
STANPUNT3 pl, -15 yds· own 25Q3
SMUPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 32Q3
STANFG11 pl, 50 yds· own 34Q3
SMUPUNT5 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q3
STANTD11 pl, 90 yds· own 5Q4
STANPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q4
SMUFG9 pl, 45 yds· own 24Q4
STANEND8 pl, 25 yds· own 21Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
SMU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
SMU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Stanford vs. SMU?
Stanford 10, SMU 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had SMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.