Stanford vs. Miami: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
STANTeam statsMIA
- Q4 0:26MIAGirard Pringle Jr. 3 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)7–42
- Q4 9:34MIAJordan Lyle 17 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)7–35
- Q3 0:32MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 7 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)7–28
- Q3 3:48MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 3 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)7–21
- Q3 9:34MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 1 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)7–14
- Q2 1:15MIACJ Daniels 5 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)7–7
- Q1 4:35STANCaden High 9 Yd pass from Ben Gulbranson (Emmet Kenney Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- STAN played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MIA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 5.1
- PassBen Gulbranson 9/21, 50 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushCole Tabb 19 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecCaden High 3 REC, 36 YDS, 1 TD
- PassCarson Beck 21/28, 189 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMark Fletcher Jr. 23 CAR, 106 YDS, 3 TD
- RecTony Johnson 3 REC, 69 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMIA up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:15MIA +14%
Shotgun #11 C.Beck pass complete short right to #7 C.Daniels caught at STAN00, for 5 yards to the STAN00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 9:34MIA +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Fletcher Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the STAN00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 4:35STAN +11%
Shotgun #15 B.Gulbranson pass complete short right to #0 C.High caught at UM00, for 9 yards to the UM00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Stanford vs. Miami?
Stanford 7, Miami 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.
| STAN | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 144 | Total yards | 404 |
| 89 | Passing yards | 205 |
| 55 | Rushing yards | 199 |
| 8 | First downs | 25 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 8-15 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 3-5 |
| 12/26 | Comp/Att | 22/30 |
| 3.4 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-10 | Penalties | 5-30 |
| 23:18 | Possession | 36:42 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:26MIAGirard Pringle Jr. 3 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)7–42
- Q4 9:34MIAJordan Lyle 17 Yd Run (Bert Auburn Kick)7–35
- Q3 0:32MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 7 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)7–28
- Q3 3:48MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 3 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)7–21
- Q3 9:34MIAMark Fletcher Jr. 1 Yd Run (Carter Davis Kick)7–14
- Q2 1:15MIACJ Daniels 5 Yd pass from Carson Beck (Carter Davis Kick)7–7
- Q1 4:35STANCaden High 9 Yd pass from Ben Gulbranson (Emmet Kenney Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIA Elo 1832, STAN Elo 1271 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIA -24.8 (94% to win) — 4.2 points clear of STAN's market line of -29. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| STAN | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.6 (#102) | CORE overall | +31.1 (#6) |
| -11 / +1 | offense / defense | +14 / -18 |
| 1.42 | points / drive | 2.85 |
| 2.33 | allowed / drive | 1.31 |
| 37% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →