Stanford
3-4·ACC· Elo 1271
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STAN | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| MIA | 0 | 7 | 21 | 14 | 42 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MIA Elo 1832, STAN Elo 1271) plus home-field advantage. That projects MIA -24.8 (97% to win) — 4.2 points of value on STAN versus the market line of -29.
MIA up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Stanford 7, Miami 42.
Yes — the model's pick (MIA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MIA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 3rd quarter.
End of 4th quarter.
End of 2nd quarter.
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