South Dakota vs. Iowa State: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

South Dakota

07

Iowa State1-0

▸0055

Final

Jack Trice Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
SOUT	7	0	0	0	7
ISU	14	13	14	14	55

SOUTTeam statsISU

209Total yards529

126Pass306

83Rush223

11First downs28

5-123rd down9-10

2Turnovers0

24:42Possession35:18

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:22ISUDylan Lee 8 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)7–55
• Q4 10:57ISUAlex Manske 4 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)7–48
• Q3 8:17ISUXavier Townsend 11 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)7–41
• Q3 9:39ISUGabe Burkle 16 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)7–34
• Q2 0:00ISUKyle Konrardy 63 Yd Field Goal 7–27
• Q2 2:35ISUKyle Konrardy 28 Yd Field Goal 7–24
• Q2 9:27ISUBenjamin Brahmer 3 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)7–21
• Q1 1:12ISUAbu Sama III 15 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)7–14
• Q1 5:44SOUTLarenzo Fenner 6 Yd pass from Aidan Bouman (Will Leyland Kick)7–7
• Q1 13:10ISUBenjamin Brahmer 4 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

ISU −15

Against the number

ISU covered

line ISU −15

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

ISU 100%50%SOUT 100%

Kickoff131 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

ISU (top)SOUT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ISU 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

ISU −15

Closing total

47.5

Model line

—

Actual result

SOUT 7 – 55 ISU

Leaders

South Dakota

• PassAidan Bouman 15/29, 126 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
• RushCharles Pierre Jr. 13 CAR, 49 YDS
• RecCharles Pierre Jr. 4 REC, 37 YDS

Iowa State

• PassRocco Becht 19/20, 278 YDS, 3 TD
• RushDylan Lee 13 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD
• RecGabe Burkle 4 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25.2sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

120

Points / snap

0.52

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

ISU up 34 entering the 4th quarter. Across 345 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

ISU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WTexas A&M vs UL Monroe47-3WMaryland vs Indiana44-17WVillanova vs Stony Brook48-13WOklahoma vs Temple51-3WTulsa vs Northwestern State62-28

Fourth downs

7 calls

Neither coaching staff gave up anything measurable.SOUT 6/6 · ISU 1/1 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of South Dakota vs. Iowa State?

South Dakota 7, Iowa State 55.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (ISU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

SOUT

ISU

33%

Success rate

57%

0.07

EPA / pass

1.05

-0.03

EPA / rush

0.27

31%

Early-down success

51%

29%

Pass success

78%

38%

Rush success

44%

6%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

18%

19%

Stuffed rush rate

10%

60%

Pass rate

40%

7.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

5.3

SOUT

7.1 yards to go on 3rd down

52 scrimmage snaps

ISU

5.3 yards to go on 3rd down

68 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

SOUT		ISU
209	Total yards	529
126	Passing yards	306
83	Rushing yards	223
11	First downs	28
5-12	3rd down	9-10
0-1	4th down	0-0
15/29	Comp/Att	23/25
4.3	Yards per pass	12.2
3.8	Yards per rush	5.3
2	Turnovers	0
5-36	Penalties	3-30
24:42	Possession	35:18

Fourth downs

7 calls

SOUT

6/6 with the model

nothing given up

ISU

1/1 with the model

nothing given up

No fourth-down call in this game cost more than a rounding error.

Every call, priced (7)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

SOUT 1/9 scoring drives← own end zone →ISU 9/10 scoring drives

ISUTD4 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

SOUTTD12 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

ISUTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

SOUTINT6 pl, 53 yds· own 25Q1

ISUTD7 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q2

SOUTPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q2

ISUFG11 pl, 52 yds· own 38Q2

SOUTDOWNS10 pl, 44 yds· own 25Q2

ISUFG4 pl, 24 yds· own 31Q2

SOUTPUNT5 pl, 14 yds· own 26Q3

ISUTD4 pl, 33 yds· opp 33Q3

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q3

ISUTD2 pl, 24 yds· opp 24Q3

SOUTPUNT6 pl, 10 yds· own 12Q3

ISUTD15 pl, 64 yds· own 36Q3

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q4

ISUTD8 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q4

SOUTINT3 pl, 4 yds· own 25Q4

ISUEND5 pl, 37 yds· opp 38Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 4:22ISUDylan Lee 8 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)7–55
• Q4 10:57ISUAlex Manske 4 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)7–48
• Q3 8:17ISUXavier Townsend 11 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)7–41
• Q3 9:39ISUGabe Burkle 16 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)7–34
• Q2 0:00ISUKyle Konrardy 63 Yd Field Goal 7–27
• Q2 2:35ISUKyle Konrardy 28 Yd Field Goal 7–24
• Q2 9:27ISUBenjamin Brahmer 3 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)7–21
• Q1 1:12ISUAbu Sama III 15 Yd Run (Kyle Konrardy Kick)7–14
• Q1 5:44SOUTLarenzo Fenner 6 Yd pass from Aidan Bouman (Will Leyland Kick)7–7
• Q1 13:10ISUBenjamin Brahmer 4 Yd pass from Rocco Becht (Kyle Konrardy Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →