South Alabama vs. Auburn: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USATeam statsAUB
- Q3 1:15AUBAlex McPherson 34 Yd Field Goal 15–31
- Q3 9:55USADevin Voisin 12 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Hamilton DiBoyan PAT failed)15–28
- Q2 0:40AUBJeremiah Cobb 2 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)9–28
- Q2 5:24USAJeremy Scott 20 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Hamilton DiBoyan PAT failed)9–21
- Q2 9:48AUBJackson Arnold 5 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)3–21
- Q2 14:14AUBJackson Arnold 6 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)3–14
- Q1 3:43USAHamilton DiBoyan 29 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 9:09AUBCam Coleman 32 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Alex McPherson Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBishop Davenport 18/26, 170 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushKentrel Bullock 16 CAR, 57 YDS
- RecAnthony Eager 8 REC, 55 YDS
- PassJackson Arnold 13/24, 142 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJeremiah Cobb 19 CAR, 119 YDS, 1 TD
- RecEric Singleton Jr. 6 REC, 65 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAUB up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 14:53USA +8%
Eric Singleton Jr. run for 8 yds to the AUB 16
FAQ
What was the final score of South Alabama vs. Auburn?
South Alabama 15, Auburn 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (AUB) was correct.
| USA | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| 310 | Total yards | 337 |
| 170 | Passing yards | 142 |
| 140 | Rushing yards | 195 |
| 20 | First downs | 19 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 18/26 | Comp/Att | 13/24 |
| 6.5 | Yards per pass | 5.9 |
| 3.3 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 4-43 |
| 31:27 | Possession | 28:33 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:49 USA go for it on 4th & 4 at USA 37. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.20 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 1:15AUBAlex McPherson 34 Yd Field Goal 15–31
- Q3 9:55USADevin Voisin 12 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Hamilton DiBoyan PAT failed)15–28
- Q2 0:40AUBJeremiah Cobb 2 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)9–28
- Q2 5:24USAJeremy Scott 20 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Hamilton DiBoyan PAT failed)9–21
- Q2 9:48AUBJackson Arnold 5 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)3–21
- Q2 14:14AUBJackson Arnold 6 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)3–14
- Q1 3:43USAHamilton DiBoyan 29 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 9:09AUBCam Coleman 32 Yd pass from Jackson Arnold (Alex McPherson Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AUB Elo 1661, USA Elo 1557 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AUB -6.6 (68% to win) — 19.9 points clear of USA's market line of -26.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USA | AUB | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.2 (#104) | CORE overall | +13.6 (#30) |
| -4 / +11 | offense / defense | +2 / -12 |
| 2.35 | points / drive | 2.05 |
| 2.86 | allowed / drive | 1.94 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -11 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →