SMU vs. Missouri State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SMUTeam statsMOST
- Q4 12:58SMURJ Maryland 7 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)28–10
- Q3 3:03SMUT.J. Harden 37 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)21–10
- Q2 0:33SMUT.J. Harden 5 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)14–10
- Q2 3:42SMUDramekco Green 6 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)7–10
- Q1 2:59MOSTDash Luke 9 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)0–10
- Q1 10:21MOSTYousef Obeid 38 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MOST lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 18% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassKevin Jennings 24/36, 281 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushTJ Harden 15 CAR, 96 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJalen Cooper 5 REC, 68 YDS
- PassJacob Clark 23/37, 275 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushShomari Lawrence 13 CAR, 44 YDS
- RecDash Luke 5 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSMU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 3:42SMU +21%
Dramekco Green run for 6 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)
- Q1 2:59MOST +21%
Jacob Clark pass complete to Dash Luke for 9 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)
- Q2 0:33SMU +19%
T.J. Harden run for 5 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)
- Q3 3:03SMU +13%
T.J. Harden run for 37 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)
- Q1 10:21MOST +7%
Yousef Obeid 38 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 3:03SMU +6%
PENALTY MSU Personal Foul (Brantley,Tim) 15 yards from SMU35 to SMU50. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of SMU vs. Missouri State?
SMU 28, Missouri State 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SMU) was correct.
| SMU | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 448 | Total yards | 328 |
| 281 | Passing yards | 275 |
| 167 | Rushing yards | 53 |
| 24 | First downs | 19 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 0-12 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 24/36 | Comp/Att | 23/38 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 4.9 | Yards per rush | 2.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 12-130 | Penalties | 7-72 |
| 28:30 | Possession | 31:30 |
Costliest call
Q2 7:36 MOST punt on 4th & 1 at SMU 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:58SMURJ Maryland 7 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)28–10
- Q3 3:03SMUT.J. Harden 37 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)21–10
- Q2 0:33SMUT.J. Harden 5 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)14–10
- Q2 3:42SMUDramekco Green 6 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)7–10
- Q1 2:59MOSTDash Luke 9 Yd pass from Jacob Clark (Yousef Obeid Kick)0–10
- Q1 10:21MOSTYousef Obeid 38 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MOST Elo 1346, SMU Elo 1703 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MOST +11.9 (23% to win) — 17.1 points clear of MOST's market line of +29. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SMU | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.6 (#27) | CORE overall | -9.3 (#92) |
| +9 / -5 | offense / defense | -0 / +9 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 2.26 |
| 1.64 | allowed / drive | 2.55 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →