← All games
SMU vs. Missouri State: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Sep 13, 7:30 PM
Plaster Sports Complex
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | 0 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| MOST | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MOST 1346
SMU 1703
Projected spread
MOST +11.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
SMU
81% to win
Market spread
MOST +29
sportsbook line
Model edge
MOST
17.1 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
19%
MOST · market 5%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MOST Elo 1346, SMU Elo 1703) plus home-field advantage. That projects MOST +11.9 (19% to win) — 17.1 points of value on MOST versus the market line of +29.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MOST (top)SMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MOST 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
SMU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedMOST
Offense
0.23
PPA / play
0.1843%
Success rate
39%1.36
Explosiveness
1.503.89
Pts / opportunity
3.6979%
Power success
61%Defense
0.03
PPA allowed / play
0.2340%
Success rate allowed
43%1.18
Explosiveness allowed
1.3119%
Havoc rate
15%22%
Stuff rate
20%Key matchups · Pro
- MOST pass offense (0.34 PPA) vs. SMU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge MOST.
- MOST rush offense (0.03 PPA) vs. SMU rush defense (-0.08 allowed) — edge MOST.
- SMU pass offense (0.40 PPA) vs. MOST pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge SMU.
Drive-by-drive
SMU 4/13 scoring drives← own end zone →MOST 2/13 scoring drives
SMUINT4 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q1
MOSTFG7 pl, 38 yds· own 41Q1
SMUFUM3 pl, 29 yds· own 25Q1
MOSTINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 46Q1
SMUMISS5 pl, 21 yds· opp 47Q1
MOSTTD6 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q1
SMUPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 14Q1
MOSTPUNT4 pl, 26 yds· own 32Q1
SMUPUNT6 pl, 42 yds· own 10Q2
MOSTPUNT5 pl, 32 yds· own 20Q2
SMUTD12 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q2
MOSTPUNT4 pl, 30 yds· own 25Q2
SMUTD8 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2
MOSTMISS7 pl, 32 yds· own 25Q2
MOSTINT9 pl, 69 yds· own 25Q3
SMUPUNT6 pl, 25 yds· own 20Q3
MOSTPUNT4 pl, 22 yds· own 20Q3
SMUTD3 pl, 46 yds· opp 46Q3
MOSTDOWNS5 pl, 32 yds· own 23Q3
SMUTD5 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q4
MOSTPUNT6 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q4
SMUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 41Q4
MOSTPUNT4 pl, 9 yds· own 20Q4
SMUPUNT9 pl, 17 yds· own 17Q4
MOSTINT5 pl, 24 yds· own 23Q4
SMUEND1 pl, 8 yds· own 41Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
SMU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
SMU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of SMU vs. Missouri State?
SMU 28, Missouri State 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SMU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had SMU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.