SMU
4-2·ACC· Elo 1709
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | 7 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 35 |
| CLEM | 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CLEM Elo 1734, SMU Elo 1709) plus home-field advantage. That projects CLEM -3.4 (60% to win), essentially in line with the market.
SMU up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
SMU 35, Clemson 24.
No — the model picked CLEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had CLEM pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Christopher Vizzina pass complete to T.J. Moore for 62 yds for a TD (Nolan Hauser KICK)
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 70 yds for a TD (Sam Keltner KICK)
Christopher Vizzina pass complete to Tristan Smith for 23 yds for a TD SMU Penalty, Defensive Offside (William Nettles) declined (Nolan Hauser KICK)
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