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SMU vs. California: Final Score & Recap
Sun, Nov 30, 1:00 AM
California Memorial StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | 7 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 35 |
| CAL | 3 | 14 | 7 | 14 | 38 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CAL 1351
SMU 1860
Projected spread
CAL +18
incl. home edge
Model pick
SMU
91% to win
Market spread
CAL +13.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
SMU
4.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
9%
CAL · market 19%
Our model blends Elo ratings (CAL Elo 1351, SMU Elo 1860) plus home-field advantage. That projects CAL +18 (9% to win) — 4.5 points of value on SMU versus the market line of +13.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
CAL (top)SMU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CAL 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
SMU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedCAL
Offense
0.23
PPA / play
0.1243%
Success rate
41%1.36
Explosiveness
1.253.89
Pts / opportunity
3.7079%
Power success
70%Defense
0.03
PPA allowed / play
0.1740%
Success rate allowed
42%1.18
Explosiveness allowed
1.1819%
Havoc rate
15%22%
Stuff rate
13%Key matchups · Pro
- SMU pass offense (0.40 PPA) vs. CAL pass defense (0.14 allowed) — edge SMU.
- SMU rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. CAL rush defense (0.21 allowed) — edge CAL.
- CAL pass offense (0.23 PPA) vs. SMU pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge CAL.
Drive-by-drive
SMU 5/11 scoring drives← own end zone →CAL 6/11 scoring drives
CALPUNT6 pl, 16 yds· own 17Q1
SMUPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 30Q1
CALFG15 pl, 60 yds· own 18Q1
SMUTD4 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1
CALTD7 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q1
SMUINT2 pl, 0 yds· own 15Q2
CALTD5 pl, 17 yds· opp 17Q2
SMUPUNT8 pl, 31 yds· own 19Q2
CALMISS10 pl, 58 yds· own 14Q2
SMUEND7 pl, 20 yds· own 28Q2
SMUPUNT4 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q3
CALTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
SMUTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
CALTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
SMUTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
CALPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 32Q4
SMUTD11 pl, 71 yds· own 29Q4
CALPUNT5 pl, 10 yds· own 25Q4
SMUTD5 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q4
CALTD7 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
SMUMISS6 pl, 40 yds· own 25Q4
CALEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 35Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
CAL up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
CAL went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of SMU vs. California?
SMU 35, California 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had SMU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.