SMU vs. California: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SMUTeam statsCAL
- Q4 0:43CALKendrick Raphael 2 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)35–38
- Q4 2:22SMUT.J. Harden 1 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)35–31
- Q4 7:59SMUJordan Hudson 20 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)28–31
- Q4 12:58SMUKevin Jennings 3 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)21–31
- Q4 14:54CALQuaRon Adams 32 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)14–31
- Q3 4:52SMUMatthew Hibner 6 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)14–24
- Q3 8:25CALCole Boscia 15 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)7–24
- Q2 10:29CALJacob De Jesus 7 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)7–17
- Q2 13:33CALJaiven Plummer 35 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)7–10
- Q1 1:37SMUChris Johnson Jr. 54 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)7–3
- Q1 3:23CALChase Meyer 40 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassKevin Jennings 24/36, 250 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushChris Johnson Jr. 10 CAR, 128 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMatthew Hibner 5 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele 31/40, 330 YDS, 4 TD
- RushKendrick Raphael 33 CAR, 111 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJacob De Jesus 12 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCAL up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:43CAL +86%
#1 K.Raphael rush left for 2 yards gain to the SMU00 TOUCHDOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD
- Q4 2:22SMU +54%
Shotgun #27 T.Harden rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CAL00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 7:59SMU +41%
Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete deep left to #2 J.Hudson caught at CAL00, for 20 yards to the CAL00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 4:46CAL +30%
#9 M.Kern punt 38 yards to the SMU27
- Q3 4:52SMU +23%
Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete short right to #88 M.Hibner caught at CAL05, for 6 yards to the CAL00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 0:37SMU +22%
Shotgun #7 K.Jennings pass complete deep left to #82 R.Maryland caught at SMU46, for 21 yards to the SMU46 (#4 B.Austin), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of SMU vs. California?
SMU 35, California 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SMU | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 477 | Total yards | 452 |
| 250 | Passing yards | 330 |
| 227 | Rushing yards | 122 |
| 23 | First downs | 27 |
| 7-11 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 24/36 | Comp/Att | 31/40 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 8.3 |
| 7.3 | Yards per rush | 3.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-94 | Penalties | 7-72 |
| 23:04 | Possession | 36:56 |
Costliest call
Q2 6:23 SMU punt on 4th & 6 at midfield. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.12 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:43CALKendrick Raphael 2 Yd Run (Chase Meyer Kick)35–38
- Q4 2:22SMUT.J. Harden 1 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)35–31
- Q4 7:59SMUJordan Hudson 20 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)28–31
- Q4 12:58SMUKevin Jennings 3 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)21–31
- Q4 14:54CALQuaRon Adams 32 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)14–31
- Q3 4:52SMUMatthew Hibner 6 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Sam Keltner Kick)14–24
- Q3 8:25CALCole Boscia 15 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)7–24
- Q2 10:29CALJacob De Jesus 7 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)7–17
- Q2 13:33CALJaiven Plummer 35 Yd pass from Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Chase Meyer Kick)7–10
- Q1 1:37SMUChris Johnson Jr. 54 Yd Run (Sam Keltner Kick)7–3
- Q1 3:23CALChase Meyer 40 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CAL Elo 1351, SMU Elo 1860 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CAL +18 (13% to win) — 4.5 points clear of SMU's market line of +13.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#64 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #24 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #52 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| SMU | CAL | |
|---|---|---|
| +14.6 (#27) | CORE overall | -6.6 (#85) |
| +9 / -5 | offense / defense | -4 / +3 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 2.06 |
| 1.64 | allowed / drive | 2.48 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →