SE Louisiana vs. LSU: Final Score & Recap

CommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

SE Louisiana0-1

0010

LSU3-0

▸0056

Final

Tiger Stadium (LA)

	1	2	3	4	T
SE L	0	0	7	3	10
LSU	7	28	7	14	56

SE LTeam statsLSU

204Total yards530

116Pass395

88Rush135

10First downs31

1-103rd down9-14

0Turnovers0

25:16Possession34:44

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:16SE LGuillermo Garcia Rodriguez 37 Yd Field Goal 10–56
• Q4 8:11LSUKyle Parker 27 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Damian Ramos Kick)7–56
• Q4 13:54LSUMichael Van Buren Jr. 1 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)7–49
• Q3 6:07SE LDeantre Jackson 14 Yd pass from Carson Camp (Guillermo Garcia Rodriguez Kick)7–42
• Q3 9:28LSUBauer Sharp 23 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)0–42
• Q2 0:15LSUZavion Thomas 9 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)0–35
• Q2 2:06LSUBarion Brown 17 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)0–28
• Q2 8:19LSUJu'Juan Johnson 10 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)0–21
• Q2 13:12LSUJu'Juan Johnson 2 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)0–14
• Q1 5:08LSUGarrett Nussmeier 1 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

LSU −48.5

Against the number

SE L covered

line LSU −48.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

SE L aheadLSU ahead

Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = SE L ahead, below = LSU ahead.

GRIDPEX.COM

Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

LSU −48.5

Closing total

60.5

Model line

—

Actual result

SE L 10 – 56 LSU

Leaders

SE Louisiana

• PassCarson Camp 8/13, 87 YDS, 1 TD
• RushCalvin Smith Jr. 2 CAR, 40 YDS
• RecDeantre Jackson 3 REC, 36 YDS, 1 TD

LSU

• PassGarrett Nussmeier 25/31, 273 YDS, 3 TD
• RushJu'Juan Johnson 8 CAR, 43 YDS, 2 TD
• RecBauer Sharp 5 REC, 73 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

27.9sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

125

Points / snap

0.53

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

LSU up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

LSU went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WAir Force vs Robert Morris42-7WMiami (OH) vs Delaware State62-20WMaine vs Stony Brook56-28WMichigan vs Nebraska45-7WSouth Dakota State vs Northern Iowa41-6

Fourth downs

16 calls

SE L gave up 0.9 points to the model on fourth down.SE L 7/9 · LSU 3/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of SE Louisiana vs. LSU?

SE Louisiana 10, LSU 56.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (LSU) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

SE L

LSU

31%

Success rate

63%

-0.04

EPA / pass

0.67

0.04

EPA / rush

0.39

36%

Early-down success

60%

33%

Pass success

67%

29%

Rush success

56%

9%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

18%

29%

Stuffed rush rate

12%

53%

Pass rate

57%

6.9

Avg 3rd-down distance

8.1

SE L

6.9 yards to go on 3rd down

45 scrimmage snaps

LSU

8.1 yards to go on 3rd down

80 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

SE L		LSU
204	Total yards	530
116	Passing yards	395
88	Rushing yards	135
10	First downs	31
1-10	3rd down	9-14
0-1	4th down	3-3
11/21	Comp/Att	35/43
5.5	Yards per pass	9.2
3.4	Yards per rush	3.9
0	Turnovers	0
5-55	Penalties	7-50
25:16	Possession	34:44

Fourth downs

16 calls

SE L

7/9 with the model

−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

LSU

3/5 with the model

−0.6 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 12:45 SE L punt on 4th & 3 at SE L 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

SE L 2/11 scoring drives← own end zone →LSU 8/10 scoring drives

LSUPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 23Q1

SE LPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 19Q1

LSUTD13 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q1

SE LDOWNS7 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q1

LSUTD7 pl, 44 yds· opp 44Q1

SE LPUNT4 pl, 20 yds· own 25Q2

LSUTD7 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q2

SE LPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 25Q2

LSUTD8 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q2

SE LPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q2

LSUTD8 pl, 56 yds· own 44Q2

SE LEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 21Q2

SE LPUNT4 pl, 21 yds· own 25Q3

LSUTD7 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q3

SE LTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3

LSUTD16 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q3

SE LPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 25Q4

LSUTD6 pl, 58 yds· own 42Q4

SE LFG11 pl, 55 yds· own 25Q4

LSUPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 22Q4

SE LEND1 pl, 5 yds· own 24Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 2:16SE LGuillermo Garcia Rodriguez 37 Yd Field Goal 10–56
• Q4 8:11LSUKyle Parker 27 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Damian Ramos Kick)7–56
• Q4 13:54LSUMichael Van Buren Jr. 1 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)7–49
• Q3 6:07SE LDeantre Jackson 14 Yd pass from Carson Camp (Guillermo Garcia Rodriguez Kick)7–42
• Q3 9:28LSUBauer Sharp 23 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)0–42
• Q2 0:15LSUZavion Thomas 9 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)0–35
• Q2 2:06LSUBarion Brown 17 Yd pass from Garrett Nussmeier (Damian Ramos Kick)0–28
• Q2 8:19LSUJu'Juan Johnson 10 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)0–21
• Q2 13:12LSUJu'Juan Johnson 2 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)0–14
• Q1 5:08LSUGarrett Nussmeier 1 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →