San José State vs. Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SJSUTeam statsTEX
- Q3 0:43TEXArch Manning 20 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)7–38
- Q3 10:50TEXMason Shipley 47 Yd Field Goal 7–31
- Q2 8:19SJSUJabari Bates 4 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)7–28
- Q2 12:56TEXJack Endries 16 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)0–28
- Q2 14:45TEXJack Endries 36 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)0–21
- Q1 0:12TEXParker Livingstone 3 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)0–14
- Q1 2:52TEXParker Livingstone 83 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassWalker Eget 21/42, 184 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJabari Bates 10 CAR, 44 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKyri Shoels 8 REC, 73 YDS
- PassArch Manning 19/30, 295 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushCJ Baxter 13 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecParker Livingstone 4 REC, 128 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEX up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of San José State vs. Texas?
San José State 7, Texas 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
| SJSU | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 273 | Total yards | 472 |
| 184 | Passing yards | 317 |
| 89 | Rushing yards | 155 |
| 16 | First downs | 18 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 2-12 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 21/43 | Comp/Att | 21/33 |
| 4.3 | Yards per pass | 9.6 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-15 | Penalties | 12-115 |
| 29:45 | Possession | 30:15 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:34 SJSU go for it on 4th & 4 at TEX 11. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.18 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 0:43TEXArch Manning 20 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)7–38
- Q3 10:50TEXMason Shipley 47 Yd Field Goal 7–31
- Q2 8:19SJSUJabari Bates 4 Yd Run (Denis Lynch Kick)7–28
- Q2 12:56TEXJack Endries 16 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)0–28
- Q2 14:45TEXJack Endries 36 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)0–21
- Q1 0:12TEXParker Livingstone 3 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)0–14
- Q1 2:52TEXParker Livingstone 83 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Mason Shipley Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEX Elo 1858, SJSU Elo 1467 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEX -18 (88% to win) — 18.5 points clear of SJSU's market line of -36.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| SJSU | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.3 (#78) | CORE overall | +14.3 (#28) |
| -1 / +3 | offense / defense | +5 / -9 |
| 1.65 | points / drive | 2.55 |
| 2.60 | allowed / drive | 1.74 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +13 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →