| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJSU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| TEX | 14 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 38 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TEX Elo 1858, SJSU Elo 1467) plus home-field advantage. That projects TEX -18 (91% to win) — 18.5 points of value on SJSU versus the market line of -36.5.
TEX up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
San José State 7, Texas 38.
Yes — the model's pick (TEX) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TEX pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Arch Manning pass complete to Parker Livingstone for 83 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
Jerrick Gibson run for 6 yds to the SJSU 15 Jerrick Gibson fumbled, forced by Larry Turner-Gooden, recovered by SJSU Jordan Pollard
Arch Manning pass intercepted Jalen Apalit-Williams return for 41 yds to the SJSU 41
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