Richmond vs. North Carolina: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Richmond

06

North Carolina1-1

▸0041

Final

Kenan Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
RICH	0	3	0	3	6
UNC	10	10	7	14	41

RICHTeam statsUNC

199Total yards312

75Pass119

124Rush193

15First downs16

5-133rd down6-11

3Turnovers1

37:59Possession21:59

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:06RICHJayden Alsheskie 28 Yd Field Goal 6–41
• Q4 8:13UNCDemon June 45 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)3–41
• Q4 14:00UNCMikai Gbayor 62 Yd Fumble Return (Rece Verhoff Kick)3–34
• Q3 2:06UNCJordan Shipp 3 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick)3–27
• Q2 1:11RICHJayden Alsheskie 25 Yd Field Goal 3–20
• Q2 10:01UNCGio Lopez 1 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)0–20
• Q2 14:51UNCRece Verhoff 22 Yd Field Goal 0–13
• Q1 3:22UNCJordan Shipp 29 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick)0–10
• Q1 9:57UNCRece Verhoff 27 Yd Field Goal 0–3

How the model called it

Market line

UNC −24.5

Against the number

UNC covered

line UNC −24.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

UNC 100%50%RICH 100%

Kickoff130 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

UNC (top)RICH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UNC 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

UNC −24.5

Closing total

47.5

Model line

—

Actual result

RICH 6 – 41 UNC

Leaders

Richmond

• PassKyle Wickersham 6/8, 47 YDS
• RushAziz Foster-Powell 12 CAR, 38 YDS
• RecIsaiah Dawson 2 REC, 37 YDS

North Carolina

• PassGio Lopez 10/18, 119 YDS, 2 TD
• RushDemon June 14 CAR, 148 YDS, 1 TD
• RecJordan Shipp 4 REC, 52 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

31.2sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

115

Points / snap

0.41

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

UNC up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

UNC went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WSMU vs Louisiana Tech38-14WIndiana vs Indiana State41-7WPresbyterian vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg48-17WDuke vs Northwestern38-14WArkansas State vs Stony Brook31-7

Fourth downs

13 calls

RICH gave up 1.7 points to the model on fourth down.RICH 5/8 · UNC 3/5 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Richmond vs. North Carolina?

Richmond 6, North Carolina 41.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (UNC) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

RICH

UNC

33%

Success rate

49%

0.01

EPA / pass

-0.16

-0.12

EPA / rush

0.33

32%

Early-down success

48%

25%

Pass success

50%

36%

Rush success

48%

2%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

12%

21%

Stuffed rush rate

14%

31%

Pass rate

43%

6.1

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.9

RICH

6.1 yards to go on 3rd down

64 scrimmage snaps

UNC

4.9 yards to go on 3rd down

51 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

RICH		UNC
199	Total yards	312
75	Passing yards	119
124	Rushing yards	193
15	First downs	16
5-13	3rd down	6-11
1-3	4th down	0-0
9/15	Comp/Att	10/19
5.0	Yards per pass	6.3
2.6	Yards per rush	6.2
3	Turnovers	1
2-8	Penalties	4-50
37:59	Possession	21:59

Fourth downs

13 calls

RICH

5/8 with the model

−1.7 pts · −0.0% win prob

UNC

3/5 with the model

−1.5 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q3 6:20 UNC punt on 4th & 1 at UNC 10. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.

Every call, priced (13)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

RICH 3/12 scoring drives← own end zone →UNC 6/10 scoring drives

RICHPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1

UNCFG7 pl, 58 yds· own 33Q1

RICHPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q1

UNCTD8 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q1

RICHDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· own 16Q1

UNCFG5 pl, 21 yds· opp 25Q1

RICHPUNT3 pl, -14 yds· own 25Q2

UNCTD7 pl, 36 yds· opp 36Q2

RICHFG14 pl, 76 yds· own 17Q2

UNCPUNT6 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q2

RICHEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 17Q2

RICHDOWNS11 pl, 53 yds· own 46Q3

UNCPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 1Q3

RICHFUM2 pl, -8 yds· own 42Q3

UNCTD7 pl, 34 yds· opp 34Q3

RICHTD5 pl, 36 yds· own 26Q3

RICHPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q4

UNCTD7 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q4

RICHINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 19Q4

UNCINT1 pl, 0 yds· opp 20Q4

RICHFG15 pl, 68 yds· own 21Q4

UNCEND1 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:06RICHJayden Alsheskie 28 Yd Field Goal 6–41
• Q4 8:13UNCDemon June 45 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)3–41
• Q4 14:00UNCMikai Gbayor 62 Yd Fumble Return (Rece Verhoff Kick)3–34
• Q3 2:06UNCJordan Shipp 3 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick)3–27
• Q2 1:11RICHJayden Alsheskie 25 Yd Field Goal 3–20
• Q2 10:01UNCGio Lopez 1 Yd Run (Rece Verhoff Kick)0–20
• Q2 14:51UNCRece Verhoff 22 Yd Field Goal 0–13
• Q1 3:22UNCJordan Shipp 29 Yd pass from Gio Lopez (Rece Verhoff Kick)0–10
• Q1 9:57UNCRece Verhoff 27 Yd Field Goal 0–3

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →