| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RICH | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| UNC | 10 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 41 |
Season rankings shown for FBS matchups only — one team here isn't in the FBS set.
UNC up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Richmond 6, North Carolina 41.
No — the model picked RICH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had RICH pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Mikai Gbayor 62 Yd Fumble Return (Rece Verhoff Kick)
Au'Tori Newkirk pass intercepted Jordan Allen return for 14 yds to the RICH 21
Au'Tori Newkirk pass intercepted Jordan Allen return for 14 yds to the RICH 21
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