Rice vs. South Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
RICETeam statsUSF
- Q4 8:33USFChristian Helms 3 Yd pass from Gaston Moore (Adam Zouagui Kick)3–52
- Q4 14:39USFByrum Brown 5 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)3–45
- Q3 1:41USFNico Gramatica 23 Yd Field Goal 3–38
- Q3 10:13USFJeremiah Koger 7 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)3–35
- Q2 0:00RICEEnock Gota 44 Yd Field Goal 3–28
- Q2 6:54USFNykahi Davenport 2 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)0–28
- Q2 11:21USFMudia Reuben 60 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)0–21
- Q1 2:59USFKeshaun Singleton 47 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:25USFKeshaun Singleton 5 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- RICE played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.3 vs 3rd & 4.3
- PassDrew Devillier 3/9, 65 YDS
- RushTyvonn Byars 6 CAR, 46 YDS
- RecAaron Turner 7 REC, 99 YDS
- PassByrum Brown 16/24, 275 YDS, 4 TD
- RushByrum Brown 15 CAR, 104 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKeshaun Singleton 6 REC, 125 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSF up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Rice vs. South Florida?
Rice 3, South Florida 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (USF) was correct.
| RICE | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| 257 | Total yards | 553 |
| 104 | Passing yards | 281 |
| 153 | Rushing yards | 272 |
| 13 | First downs | 30 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 9/18 | Comp/Att | 18/28 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 10.0 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-83 | Penalties | 3-30 |
| 31:22 | Possession | 28:38 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:34 USF punt on 4th & 2 at USF 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.54 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:33USFChristian Helms 3 Yd pass from Gaston Moore (Adam Zouagui Kick)3–52
- Q4 14:39USFByrum Brown 5 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)3–45
- Q3 1:41USFNico Gramatica 23 Yd Field Goal 3–38
- Q3 10:13USFJeremiah Koger 7 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)3–35
- Q2 0:00RICEEnock Gota 44 Yd Field Goal 3–28
- Q2 6:54USFNykahi Davenport 2 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)0–28
- Q2 11:21USFMudia Reuben 60 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)0–21
- Q1 2:59USFKeshaun Singleton 47 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:25USFKeshaun Singleton 5 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USF Elo 1751, RICE Elo 1144 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USF -26.7 (95% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| RICE | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| -26.8 (#132) | CORE overall | +16.2 (#25) |
| -20 / +7 | offense / defense | +11 / -5 |
| 1.40 | points / drive | 3.02 |
| 3.09 | allowed / drive | 1.88 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -24 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →