| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RICE | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| USF | 14 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 52 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (USF Elo 1751, RICE Elo 1144) plus home-field advantage. That projects USF -26.7 (98% to win), essentially in line with the market.
USF up 35 entering the 4th quarter. Across 276 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Rice 3, South Florida 52.
Yes — the model's pick (USF) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had USF pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(11:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 B.Brown pass complete short middle to #6 M.Reuben caught at Rice44, for 60 yards to the Rice00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:21, 1ST DOWN #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #37 C.Leon, LS: #95 G.Cates)
(09:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Devillier pass complete short middle to #1 A.Turner caught at Rice22, for 55 yards to the USF20 (#21 J.Stokes), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
(12:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 L.Scheerhorn rush middle for 5 yards loss to the USF39 fumbled by #8 L.Scheerhorn at USF39 recovered by USF #99 D.Lee at USF39, End Of Play
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