Purdue vs. Minnesota: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PURTeam statsMINN
- Q4 7:40MINNKoi Perich 27 Yd Interception Return (Brady Denaburg Kick)20–27
- Q4 7:47MINNJameson Geers 4 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)20–20
- Q3 8:20PURSpencer Porath 20 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q2 0:00MINNBrady Denaburg 29 Yd Field Goal 17–13
- Q2 1:52PURRyan Browne 12 Yd Run (Spencer Porath Kick)17–10
- Q2 8:44MINNBrady Denaburg 46 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 9:46MINNLe'Meke Brockington 24 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)10–7
- Q2 11:09PURSpencer Porath 33 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 12:12PURMalachi Singleton 40 Yd Run (Spencer Porath Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassRyan Browne 21/40, 203 YDS, 2 INT
- RushDevin Mockobee 21 CAR, 98 YDS
- RecNitro Tuggle 3 REC, 58 YDS
- PassDrake Lindsey 21/45, 232 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDarius Taylor 14 CAR, 32 YDS
- RecDarius Taylor 6 REC, 67 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPUR up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 7:47MINN +43%
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jameson Geers for 4 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)
- Q2 1:52PUR +24%
Ryan Browne run for 12 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)
- Q4 7:40MINN +20%
Ryan Browne pass intercepted Koi Perich return for 27 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)
- Q3 8:20PUR +16%
Spencer Porath 20 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 14:16PUR +15%
Spencer Porath 47 yd FG MISSED
- Q2 0:00MINN +10%
Brady Denaburg 29 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Purdue vs. Minnesota?
Purdue 20, Minnesota 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MINN) was correct.
| PUR | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 456 | Total yards | 262 |
| 203 | Passing yards | 232 |
| 253 | Rushing yards | 30 |
| 25 | First downs | 17 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 21/42 | Comp/Att | 21/45 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 5.2 |
| 6.3 | Yards per rush | 1.7 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 9-71 | Penalties | 3-20 |
| 34:30 | Possession | 25:30 |
Costliest call
Q1 9:12 MINN punt on 4th & 1 at MINN 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.01 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:40MINNKoi Perich 27 Yd Interception Return (Brady Denaburg Kick)20–27
- Q4 7:47MINNJameson Geers 4 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)20–20
- Q3 8:20PURSpencer Porath 20 Yd Field Goal 20–13
- Q2 0:00MINNBrady Denaburg 29 Yd Field Goal 17–13
- Q2 1:52PURRyan Browne 12 Yd Run (Spencer Porath Kick)17–10
- Q2 8:44MINNBrady Denaburg 46 Yd Field Goal 10–10
- Q2 9:46MINNLe'Meke Brockington 24 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)10–7
- Q2 11:09PURSpencer Porath 33 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 12:12PURMalachi Singleton 40 Yd Run (Spencer Porath Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MINN Elo 1537, PUR Elo 1311 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MINN -11.4 (78% to win) — 3.9 points clear of MINN's market line of -7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMinnesota leads 42–35–3 · 46% have been one-possession games
| PUR | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.5 (#93) | CORE overall | -10.1 (#96) |
| -4 / +5 | offense / defense | -7 / +3 |
| 1.57 | points / drive | 1.72 |
| 3.07 | allowed / drive | 2.38 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →