Portland State vs. Hawai'i: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Portland State0-1

03

Hawai'i2-1

▸0023

Final

Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex

	1	2	3	4	T
PORT	0	0	3	0	3
HAW	0	14	3	6	23

PORTTeam statsHAW

230Total yards357

189Pass250

41Rush107

16First downs18

4-133rd down9-19

1Turnovers0

25:53Possession34:07

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:58HAWKansei Matsuzawa 35 Yd Field Goal 3–23
• Q4 8:12HAWKansei Matsuzawa 47 Yd Field Goal 3–20
• Q3 3:45PORTMathias Uribe 25 Yd Field Goal 3–17
• Q3 9:30HAWKansei Matsuzawa 44 Yd Field Goal 0–17
• Q2 9:39HAWCam Barfield 31 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)0–14
• Q2 13:09HAWCam Barfield 16 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

HAW −36.5

Against the number

PORT covered

line HAW −36.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

HAW 100%50%PORT 100%

Kickoff161 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

HAW (top)PORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: HAW 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

HAW −36.5

Closing total

54.5

Model line

—

Actual result

PORT 3 – 23 HAW

Leaders

Portland State

• PassJohn-Keawe Sagapolutele 23/35, 189 YDS, 1 INT
• RushEddy Schultz 3 CAR, 23 YDS
• RecZachary Dodson-Greene 9 REC, 78 YDS

Hawai'i

• PassLuke Weaver 26/42, 240 YDS, 2 TD
• RushLandon Sims 9 CAR, 41 YDS
• RecCam Barfield 4 REC, 50 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

25.1sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

138

Points / snap

0.19

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

HAW up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

94%

HAW went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WVanderbilt vs Hawai'i35-28WFurman vs Tennessee Tech45-10WTulane vs South Alabama37-17WWilliam & Mary vs Wofford23-6WOld Dominion vs Louisiana38-31

Fourth downs

19 calls

HAW gave up 1.0 points to the model on fourth down.PORT 7/8 · HAW 8/9 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Portland State vs. Hawai'i?

Portland State 3, Hawai'i 23.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (HAW) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

PORT

HAW

31%

Success rate

38%

0.21

EPA / pass

0.18

-0.53

EPA / rush

0.11

33%

Early-down success

32%

39%

Pass success

35%

18%

Rush success

43%

7%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

11%

36%

Stuffed rush rate

14%

62%

Pass rate

65%

7.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.5

PORT

7.8 yards to go on 3rd down

58 scrimmage snaps

HAW

7.5 yards to go on 3rd down

80 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

PORT		HAW
230	Total yards	357
189	Passing yards	250
41	Rushing yards	107
16	First downs	18
4-13	3rd down	9-19
0-3	4th down	1-1
23/35	Comp/Att	27/45
5.4	Yards per pass	5.6
1.8	Yards per rush	3.7
1	Turnovers	0
7-65	Penalties	13-138
25:53	Possession	34:07

Fourth downs

19 calls

PORT

7/8 with the model

−0.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

HAW

8/9 with the model

−1.0 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 0:17 HAW punt on 4th & 1 at HAW 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.97 points.

Every call, priced (19)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

PORT 1/12 scoring drives← own end zone →HAW 5/11 scoring drives

PORTPUNT7 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q1

HAWPUNT8 pl, 31 yds· own 18Q1

PORTINT10 pl, 63 yds· own 12Q1

HAWTD10 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q1

PORTPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 16Q2

HAWTD7 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q2

PORTDOWNS7 pl, 47 yds· midfieldQ2

HAWPUNT5 pl, 12 yds· own 3Q2

PORTDOWNS7 pl, 28 yds· own 43Q2

HAWPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 29Q2

PORTEND1 pl, -2 yds· own 7Q2

HAWFG12 pl, 61 yds· own 13Q3

PORTPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 33Q3

HAWPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 30Q3

PORTFG5 pl, 33 yds· opp 40Q3

HAWPUNT5 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q3

PORTPUNT5 pl, 26 yds· own 19Q3

HAWFG14 pl, 51 yds· own 20Q4

PORTPUNT4 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q4

HAWPUNT3 pl, -17 yds· own 42Q4

PORTDOWNS4 pl, 6 yds· own 24Q4

HAWFG7 pl, 13 yds· opp 30Q4

PORTEND3 pl, 22 yds· own 14Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 0:58HAWKansei Matsuzawa 35 Yd Field Goal 3–23
• Q4 8:12HAWKansei Matsuzawa 47 Yd Field Goal 3–20
• Q3 3:45PORTMathias Uribe 25 Yd Field Goal 3–17
• Q3 9:30HAWKansei Matsuzawa 44 Yd Field Goal 0–17
• Q2 9:39HAWCam Barfield 31 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)0–14
• Q2 13:09HAWCam Barfield 16 Yd pass from Luke Weaver (Kansei Matsuzawa Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →