| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PITT | 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 17 |
| ECU | 0 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 23 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (ECU Elo 1576, PITT Elo 1631) on a neutral field. That projects ECU +2.2 (44% to win) — 8.3 points of value on ECU versus the market line of +10.5.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: PITT · 18 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Offense
Key matchups · Pro
- PITT pass offense (0.34 PPA) vs. ECU pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge PITT.
- ECU pass offense (0.37 PPA) vs. PITT pass defense (0.21 allowed) — edge ECU.
- ECU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. PITT rush defense (-0.06 allowed) — edge ECU.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ECU up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Pittsburgh vs. East Carolina?
Pittsburgh 17, East Carolina 23.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked PITT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had PITT pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.