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Penn State vs. Iowa: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 18, 11:00 PM
Kinnick StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSU | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 24 |
| IOWA | 3 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 25 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
IOWA 1824
PSU 1996
Projected spread
IOWA +4.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
PSU
63% to win
Market spread
IOWA -3
sportsbook line
Model edge
PSU
7.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
37%
IOWA · market 58%
Our model blends Elo ratings (IOWA Elo 1824, PSU Elo 1996) plus home-field advantage. That projects IOWA +4.5 (37% to win) — 7.5 points of value on PSU versus the market line of -3.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
IOWA (top)PSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: IOWA 100%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
PSU2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedIOWA
Offense
0.23
PPA / play
0.1746%
Success rate
44%1.20
Explosiveness
1.124.32
Pts / opportunity
4.4476%
Power success
81%Defense
0.12
PPA allowed / play
0.0841%
Success rate allowed
39%1.17
Explosiveness allowed
1.1316%
Havoc rate
17%18%
Stuff rate
19%Key matchups · Pro
- PSU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. IOWA rush defense (0.08 allowed) — edge PSU.
- PSU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. IOWA pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge PSU.
- IOWA rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. PSU rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge IOWA.
Drive-by-drive
PSU 3/10 scoring drives← own end zone →IOWA 6/11 scoring drives
IOWAINT3 pl, 3 yds· own 25Q1
PSUTD10 pl, 35 yds· opp 35Q1
IOWAFG9 pl, 54 yds· own 25Q1
PSUPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 10Q1
IOWAMISS4 pl, 7 yds· opp 35Q1
PSUPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 28Q1
IOWAPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 34Q2
PSUINT12 pl, 52 yds· own 10Q2
IOWAPUNT8 pl, 35 yds· own 4Q2
PSUINT3 pl, 4 yds· own 20Q2
IOWATD2 pl, 1 yds· opp 1Q2
PSUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q2
IOWATD5 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q2
PSUTD10 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
IOWATD8 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q3
PSUDOWNS7 pl, 20 yds· own 20Q3
IOWAFG5 pl, 27 yds· opp 40Q3
PSUFG16 pl, 61 yds· own 25Q4
IOWATD2 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4
PSUDOWNS8 pl, 27 yds· own 22Q4
IOWAEND4 pl, 18 yds· opp 49Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
PSU up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
72%
PSU went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Penn State vs. Iowa?
Penn State 24, Iowa 25.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked PSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had PSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.