Penn State vs. Iowa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PSUTeam statsIOWA
- Q4 3:54IOWAKaden Wetjen 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–25
- Q4 4:56PSURyan Barker 32 Yd Field Goal 24–19
- Q4 13:17IOWADrew Stevens 31 Yd Field Goal 21–19
- Q3 4:19IOWAMark Gronowski 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–16
- Q3 9:25PSUKaytron Allen 8 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)21–10
- Q2 0:00PSUElliot Washington II 35 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Ryan Barker Kick)14–10
- Q2 1:14IOWAMark Gronowski 1 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)7–10
- Q1 4:24IOWADrew Stevens 39 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 8:45PSUKaytron Allen 1 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassEthan Grunkemeyer 15/28, 93 YDS, 2 INT
- RushKaytron Allen 28 CAR, 145 YDS, 2 TD
- RecTrebor Pena 3 REC, 19 YDS
- PassMark Gronowski 10/16, 68 YDS, 1 INT
- RushMark Gronowski 9 CAR, 130 YDS, 2 TD
- RecKaden Wetjen 2 REC, 21 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPSU up 5 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,967 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 3:54IOWA +51%
Kaden Wetjen run for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q2 0:22PSU +45%
Penn State Penalty, Personal Foul (Dominic DeLuca) to the IOWA 44 for a 1ST down
- Q4 4:56PSU +34%
Ryan Barker 32 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 1:08IOWA +26%
Kamari Moulton run for 3 yds to the PSU 46
- Q2 0:00PSU +24%
Elliot Washington II 35 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Ryan Barker Kick)
- Q2 1:14IOWA +23%
Mark Gronowski run for 1 yd for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Penn State vs. Iowa?
Penn State 24, Iowa 25.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked PSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| PSU | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 266 | Total yards | 313 |
| 93 | Passing yards | 68 |
| 173 | Rushing yards | 245 |
| 19 | First downs | 11 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 4-10 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 15/28 | Comp/Att | 10/16 |
| 3.3 | Yards per pass | 4.3 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 7.4 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 2-15 | Penalties | 3-20 |
| 36:12 | Possession | 23:48 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:50 IOWA punt on 4th & 1 at IOWA 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:54IOWAKaden Wetjen 8 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)24–25
- Q4 4:56PSURyan Barker 32 Yd Field Goal 24–19
- Q4 13:17IOWADrew Stevens 31 Yd Field Goal 21–19
- Q3 4:19IOWAMark Gronowski 4 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–16
- Q3 9:25PSUKaytron Allen 8 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)21–10
- Q2 0:00PSUElliot Washington II 35 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Ryan Barker Kick)14–10
- Q2 1:14IOWAMark Gronowski 1 Yd Run (Drew Stevens Kick)7–10
- Q1 4:24IOWADrew Stevens 39 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 8:45PSUKaytron Allen 1 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IOWA Elo 1824, PSU Elo 1996 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IOWA +4.5 (39% to win) — 7.5 points clear of PSU's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesPenn State leads 18–15 · 45% have been one-possession games
| PSU | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| +13.0 (#32) | CORE overall | +16.7 (#24) |
| +8 / -5 | offense / defense | +4 / -13 |
| 2.96 | points / drive | 2.62 |
| 2.25 | allowed / drive | 1.35 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →