| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT1 | OT2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORE | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 30 |
| PSU | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (PSU Elo 2087, ORE Elo 2001) plus home-field advantage. That projects PSU -5.8 (67% to win), essentially in line with the market.
ORE up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Oregon 30, Penn State 24.
No — the model picked PSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had PSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
D.Allar pass INTERCEPTED at ORE 19. Intercepted by D.Thieneman at ORE 19. Tackled by PSU at ORE 19.
Drew Allar run for 20 yds to the ORE 41 for a 1ST down
Dante Moore pass complete to Dakorien Moore for 20 yds to the PSU 30 for a 1ST down
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