Oregon vs. Penn State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORETeam statsPSU
- 2OT 0:00OREGary Bryant Jr. 25 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–24
- OT 0:00OREJamari Johnson 2 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)24–24
- OT 0:00PSUKaytron Allen 4 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)17–24
- Q4 0:30PSUDevonte Ross 7 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Ryan Barker Kick)17–17
- Q4 10:30PSUDevonte Ross 35 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Ryan Barker Kick)17–10
- Q4 12:25OREJordon Davison 8 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)17–3
- Q3 3:16OREDierre Hill Jr. 8 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)10–3
- Q2 3:42OREAtticus Sappington 42 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q2 13:26PSURyan Barker 49 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassDante Moore 29/39, 248 YDS, 3 TD
- RushDierre Hill Jr. 10 CAR, 82 YDS
- RecDakorien Moore 7 REC, 89 YDS
- PassDrew Allar 14/25, 137 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushKaytron Allen 12 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDevonte Ross 4 REC, 48 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORE up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:30PSU +70%
Drew Allar pass complete to Devonte Ross for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Barker KICK)
- Q4 0:20ORE +70%
Dante Moore pass complete to Dakorien Moore for 3 yds to the ORE 28
- OT 0:00PSU +58%
D.Allar pass complete. Catch made by K.Allen for 5 yards. Tackled by ORE at ORE 20
- OT 0:00ORE +48%
D.Moore pass complete. Catch made by J.Johnson for 2 yards. TOUCHDOWN
- OT 0:00PSU +32%
K.Allen rushed for 4 yards. TOUCHDOWN
- 2OT 0:00ORE +32%
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. D.Moore steps back to pass. D.Dennis-Sutton intercepts the ball. Tackled by ORE at PSU 50. TWO-POINT ATTEMPT FAILS. DEFENSIVE CONVERSION…
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon vs. Penn State?
Oregon 30, Penn State 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked PSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ORE | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 424 | Total yards | 276 |
| 248 | Passing yards | 137 |
| 176 | Rushing yards | 139 |
| 20 | First downs | 15 |
| 6-18 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 5-7 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 29/39 | Comp/Att | 14/25 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-34 | Penalties | 2-10 |
| 33:52 | Possession | 26:08 |
Costliest call
Q3 9:11 PSU punt on 4th & 9 at ORE 36. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- 2OT 0:00OREGary Bryant Jr. 25 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–24
- OT 0:00OREJamari Johnson 2 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)24–24
- OT 0:00PSUKaytron Allen 4 Yd Run (Ryan Barker Kick)17–24
- Q4 0:30PSUDevonte Ross 7 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Ryan Barker Kick)17–17
- Q4 10:30PSUDevonte Ross 35 Yd pass from Drew Allar (Ryan Barker Kick)17–10
- Q4 12:25OREJordon Davison 8 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)17–3
- Q3 3:16OREDierre Hill Jr. 8 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)10–3
- Q2 3:42OREAtticus Sappington 42 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q2 13:26PSURyan Barker 49 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PSU Elo 2087, ORE Elo 2001 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PSU -5.8 (66% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ORE | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +34.6 (#4) | CORE overall | +13.0 (#32) |
| +19 / -16 | offense / defense | +8 / -5 |
| 3.09 | points / drive | 2.96 |
| 1.44 | allowed / drive | 2.25 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →