Oregon vs. Northwestern: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORETeam statsNU
- Q4 1:48NUDashun Reeder 79 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)34–14
- Q4 6:20NUCaleb Komolafe 1 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)34–7
- Q4 11:27OREAtticus Sappington 25 Yd Field Goal 34–0
- Q3 2:56OREJordon Davison 2 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)31–0
- Q3 7:44OREDierre Hill Jr. 66 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)24–0
- Q2 0:31OREKenyon Sadiq 24 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)17–0
- Q2 9:28OREAtticus Sappington 42 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 2:18OREJayden Limar 1 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDante Moore 16/20, 178 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDierre Hill Jr. 5 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMalik Benson 4 REC, 62 YDS
- PassPreston Stone 11/21, 135 YDS, 2 INT
- RushDashun Reeder 1 CAR, 79 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGriffin Wilde 4 REC, 55 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORE up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon vs. Northwestern?
Oregon 34, Northwestern 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
| ORE | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| 373 | Total yards | 313 |
| 197 | Passing yards | 135 |
| 176 | Rushing yards | 178 |
| 21 | First downs | 15 |
| 7-11 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 19/26 | Comp/Att | 11/22 |
| 7.6 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 5.9 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 0-0 | Penalties | 4-27 |
| 27:42 | Possession | 32:18 |
Costliest call
Q3 7:56 NU go for it on 4th & 9 at ORE 34. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.36 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:48NUDashun Reeder 79 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)34–14
- Q4 6:20NUCaleb Komolafe 1 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)34–7
- Q4 11:27OREAtticus Sappington 25 Yd Field Goal 34–0
- Q3 2:56OREJordon Davison 2 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)31–0
- Q3 7:44OREDierre Hill Jr. 66 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)24–0
- Q2 0:31OREKenyon Sadiq 24 Yd pass from Dante Moore (Atticus Sappington Kick)17–0
- Q2 9:28OREAtticus Sappington 42 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 2:18OREJayden Limar 1 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NU Elo 1403, ORE Elo 1992 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NU +21.2 (10% to win) — 4.3 points clear of NU's market line of +25.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ORE | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| +34.6 (#4) | CORE overall | -1.8 (#67) |
| +19 / -16 | offense / defense | -0 / +1 |
| 3.09 | points / drive | 2.35 |
| 1.44 | allowed / drive | 2.19 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →