| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORE | 7 | 10 | 14 | 3 | 34 |
| NU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NU Elo 1403, ORE Elo 1992) plus home-field advantage. That projects NU +21.2 (6% to win) — 4.3 points of value on NU versus the market line of +25.5.
ORE up 31 entering the 4th quarter. Across 343 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Oregon 34, Northwestern 14.
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ORE pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Dashun Reeder run for 79 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)
Dierre Hill Jr. run for 66 yds for a TD (Atticus Sappington KICK)
Dante Moore pass intercepted Mac Uihlein return for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 4
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