Oregon vs. Iowa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORETeam statsIOWA
- Q4 0:03OREAtticus Sappington 39 Yd Field Goal 18–16
- Q4 1:51IOWAMark Gronowski 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)15–16
- Q4 12:39IOWADrew Stevens 58 Yd Field Goal 15–10
- Q3 0:44OREAtticus Sappington 40 Yd Field Goal 15–7
- Q2 0:00OREAtticus Sappington 46 Yd Field Goal 12–7
- Q2 5:43IOWADJ Vonnahme 3 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens Kick)9–7
- Q2 11:46OREDierre Hill Jr. 19 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)9–0
- Q1 9:55ORETeam Safety 2–0
How the model called it
- PassDante Moore 13/21, 112 YDS, 1 INT
- RushNoah Whittington 17 CAR, 118 YDS
- RecJamari Johnson 4 REC, 36 YDS
- PassMark Gronowski 10/18, 138 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKamari Moulton 23 CAR, 87 YDS
- RecDJ Vonnahme 2 REC, 43 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsORE up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:03ORE +80%
Atticus Sappington 39 Yd Field Goal
- Q4 1:51IOWA +60%
Mark Gronowski 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
- Q2 5:43IOWA +19%
Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski pass complete short left to #81 D.Vonnahme caught at OREGON03, for 3 yards to the OREGON00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 8:27ORE +18%
Shotgun #11 M.Gronowski rush middle for 4 yards gain to the IOWA11 (#54 J.Mixon; #22 J.Canady)
- Q3 0:44ORE +18%
#36 A.Sappington field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD
- Q2 11:46ORE +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 D.Hill Jr rush left for 19 yards gain to the IOWA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon vs. Iowa?
Oregon 18, Iowa 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
| ORE | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 373 | Total yards | 239 |
| 112 | Passing yards | 138 |
| 261 | Rushing yards | 101 |
| 19 | First downs | 18 |
| 3-10 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 13/21 | Comp/Att | 10/18 |
| 5.3 | Yards per pass | 7.7 |
| 7.3 | Yards per rush | 2.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 5-57 | Penalties | 1-0 |
| 26:40 | Possession | 33:20 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:36 ORE punt on 4th & 12 at IOWA 37. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:03OREAtticus Sappington 39 Yd Field Goal 18–16
- Q4 1:51IOWAMark Gronowski 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)15–16
- Q4 12:39IOWADrew Stevens 58 Yd Field Goal 15–10
- Q3 0:44OREAtticus Sappington 40 Yd Field Goal 15–7
- Q2 0:00OREAtticus Sappington 46 Yd Field Goal 12–7
- Q2 5:43IOWADJ Vonnahme 3 Yd pass from Mark Gronowski (Drew Stevens Kick)9–7
- Q2 11:46OREDierre Hill Jr. 19 Yd Run (Atticus Sappington Kick)9–0
- Q1 9:55ORETeam Safety 2–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (IOWA Elo 1907, ORE Elo 2055 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects IOWA +3.5 (42% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ORE | IOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| +34.6 (#4) | CORE overall | +16.7 (#24) |
| +19 / -16 | offense / defense | +4 / -13 |
| 3.09 | points / drive | 2.62 |
| 1.44 | allowed / drive | 1.35 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →