Oregon
7-1·Big Ten· Elo 2055
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORE | 2 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| IOWA | 0 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (IOWA Elo 1907, ORE Elo 2055) plus home-field advantage. That projects IOWA +3.5 (40% to win), essentially in line with the market.
ORE up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Oregon 18, Iowa 16.
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ORE pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
End of 1st quarter.
(07:15) #21 K.Wetjen rush left for 3 yards gain to the OREGON13 fumbled by #21 K.Wetjen at OREGON14 forced by #4 B.Finney recovered by OREGON #1 B.Alexander at OREGON13, End Of Play
(05:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore rush left for 49 yards gain to the IOWA36 (#6 Z.Lutmer), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
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