Oregon State vs. Washington State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORSTTeam statsWSU
- Q4 5:01WSUAngel Johnson 2 Yd Run (Jack Stevens Kick)8–32
- Q4 5:49ORSTTrent Walker 12 Yd pass from Tristan Ti'a (Jake Reichle Run for Two-Point Conversion)8–25
- Q3 4:51WSUZevi Eckhaus 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–25
- Q2 1:34WSUTrey Leckner 1 Yd pass from Zevi Eckhaus (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–19
- Q2 11:54WSUKirby Vorhees 2 Yd Run (Jack Stevens Kick)0–13
- Q2 14:08WSUJack Stevens 44 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 9:26WSUJack Stevens 26 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ORST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.4 vs 3rd & 5.6
- PassTristan Ti'a 28/41, 240 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushAnthony Hankerson 16 CAR, 71 YDS
- RecTrent Walker 7 REC, 61 YDS, 1 TD
- PassZevi Eckhaus 17/28, 197 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAngel Johnson 4 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTony Freeman 7 REC, 84 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWSU up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:54WSU +6%
Shotgun #9 K.Vorhees rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN PENALTY OSU Offside declined
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon State vs. Washington State?
Oregon State 8, Washington State 32.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WSU) was correct.
| ORST | WSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 280 | Total yards | 383 |
| 240 | Passing yards | 197 |
| 40 | Rushing yards | 186 |
| 17 | First downs | 22 |
| 3-14 | 3rd down | 6-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 28/41 | Comp/Att | 17/28 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 7.0 |
| 1.4 | Yards per rush | 5.5 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 13-119 | Penalties | 9-77 |
| 31:26 | Possession | 28:34 |
Costliest call
Q2 5:08 WSU punt on 4th & 3 at ORST 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.20 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:01WSUAngel Johnson 2 Yd Run (Jack Stevens Kick)8–32
- Q4 5:49ORSTTrent Walker 12 Yd pass from Tristan Ti'a (Jake Reichle Run for Two-Point Conversion)8–25
- Q3 4:51WSUZevi Eckhaus 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–25
- Q2 1:34WSUTrey Leckner 1 Yd pass from Zevi Eckhaus (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–19
- Q2 11:54WSUKirby Vorhees 2 Yd Run (Jack Stevens Kick)0–13
- Q2 14:08WSUJack Stevens 44 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 9:26WSUJack Stevens 26 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WSU Elo 1508, ORST Elo 1175 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WSU -15.7 (85% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesWashington State leads 56–44–3 · 42% have been one-possession games
| ORST | WSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.8 (#106) | CORE overall | +10.0 (#40) |
| -9 / +6 | offense / defense | +3 / -7 |
| 1.38 | points / drive | 2.11 |
| 2.61 | allowed / drive | 1.86 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →