Oregon State vs. Tulsa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORSTTeam statsTLSA
- Q4 1:57ORSTDavid Wells Jr. 4 Yd pass from Tristan Ti'a (Tristan Ti'a Pass to Karson Boschma for Two-Point Conversion)14–31
- Q4 8:49ORSTTrent Walker 3 Yd pass from Tristan Ti'a (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–31
- Q4 13:18TLSAAjay Allen 31 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)0–31
- Q3 12:32TLSABrody Foley 5 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)0–24
- Q2 5:33TLSASeth Morgan 25 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 8:14TLSABrody Foley 6 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Seth Morgan Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:36TLSADominic Richardson 24 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTristan Ti'a 8/11, 141 YDS, 2 TD
- RushAnthony Hankerson 19 CAR, 46 YDS
- RecTrent Walker 5 REC, 117 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBaylor Hayes 12/19, 163 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDominic Richardson 27 CAR, 166 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBrody Foley 7 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTLSA up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:47ORST +11%
#38 A.Winsor punt 49 yards to the Tulsa27 fair catch by #19 G.Tempest at Tulsa27
- Q3 12:32TLSA +6%
Shotgun #80 B.Foley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the OSU00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon State vs. Tulsa?
Oregon State 14, Tulsa 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ORST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ORST | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 310 | Total yards | 446 |
| 241 | Passing yards | 163 |
| 69 | Rushing yards | 283 |
| 17 | First downs | 23 |
| 8-18 | 3rd down | 4-11 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 19/36 | Comp/Att | 12/19 |
| 6.7 | Yards per pass | 8.6 |
| 2.0 | Yards per rush | 5.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-85 | Penalties | 6-65 |
| 30:37 | Possession | 29:23 |
Costliest call
Q2 11:59 TLSA punt on 4th & 11 at ORST 41. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.30 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:57ORSTDavid Wells Jr. 4 Yd pass from Tristan Ti'a (Tristan Ti'a Pass to Karson Boschma for Two-Point Conversion)14–31
- Q4 8:49ORSTTrent Walker 3 Yd pass from Tristan Ti'a (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–31
- Q4 13:18TLSAAjay Allen 31 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)0–31
- Q3 12:32TLSABrody Foley 5 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)0–24
- Q2 5:33TLSASeth Morgan 25 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 8:14TLSABrody Foley 6 Yd pass from Baylor Hayes (Seth Morgan Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:36TLSADominic Richardson 24 Yd Run (Seth Morgan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TLSA Elo 1037, ORST Elo 1232 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TLSA +5.4 (37% to win) — 6.9 points clear of ORST's market line of -1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ORST | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.8 (#106) | CORE overall | -8.2 (#90) |
| -9 / +6 | offense / defense | -8 / +0 |
| 1.38 | points / drive | 1.91 |
| 2.61 | allowed / drive | 2.62 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →