| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORST | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 |
| TLSA | 14 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TLSA Elo 1037, ORST Elo 1232) plus home-field advantage. That projects TLSA +5.4 (34% to win) — 6.9 points of value on ORST versus the market line of -1.5.
TLSA up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Oregon State 14, Tulsa 31.
No — the model picked ORST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had ORST pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(13:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short right to #80 B.Foley caught at Tulsa34, for 40 yards to the OSU39 (#6 J.Patterson), 1ST DOWN
(03:34) #10 T.Ti'a pass complete deep right to #7 T.Walker caught at Tulsa22, for 38 yards to the Tulsa19 (#7 E.Green), 1ST DOWN
(02:15) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete deep right to #18 D.Gee Jr. caught at OSU45, for 38 yards to the OSU45 (#22 J.Tucker), 1ST DOWN
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