Oregon State vs. Texas Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORSTTeam statsTTU
- Q4 1:53ORSTKarson Boschma 26 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Caleb Ojeda Kick)14–45
- Q4 5:05ORSTBryce Caufield 6 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Caleb Ojeda Kick)7–45
- Q4 10:43TTUCameron Dickey 4 Yd Run (Ian Hershey Kick)0–45
- Q3 1:07TTUUpton Bellenfant 21 Yd Field Goal 0–38
- Q3 11:26TTUTerrance Carter Jr. 23 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Stone Harrington Kick)0–35
- Q2 6:35TTUJ'Koby Williams 3 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)0–28
- Q2 10:01TTUJ'Koby Williams 30 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Stone Harrington Kick)0–21
- Q1 6:27TTUCaleb Douglas 61 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Upton Bellenfant Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:00TTUCoy Eakin 38 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Stone Harrington Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- TTU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ORST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 12.7 vs 3rd & 7.5
- PassMaalik Murphy 25/44, 281 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushAnthony Hankerson 11 CAR, 12 YDS
- RecDavid Wells Jr. 6 REC, 103 YDS
- PassBehren Morton 23/35, 464 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- RushCameron Dickey 16 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCoy Eakin 5 REC, 123 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTTU up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 183 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:00TTU +10%
Behren Morton pass complete to Coy Eakin for 38 yds for a TD (Stone Harrington KICK)
- Q1 6:27TTU +6%
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 61 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon State vs. Texas Tech?
Oregon State 14, Texas Tech 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TTU) was correct.
| ORST | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| 289 | Total yards | 599 |
| 281 | Passing yards | 478 |
| 8 | Rushing yards | 121 |
| 17 | First downs | 30 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 9-15 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 25/46 | Comp/Att | 27/41 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 11.7 |
| 0.4 | Yards per rush | 3.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-23 | Penalties | 9-75 |
| 29:00 | Possession | 31:00 |
Costliest call
Q2 14:21 TTU go for it on 4th & 65 at TTU 7. The model preferred punt, a gap of 1.68 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:53ORSTKarson Boschma 26 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Caleb Ojeda Kick)14–45
- Q4 5:05ORSTBryce Caufield 6 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Caleb Ojeda Kick)7–45
- Q4 10:43TTUCameron Dickey 4 Yd Run (Ian Hershey Kick)0–45
- Q3 1:07TTUUpton Bellenfant 21 Yd Field Goal 0–38
- Q3 11:26TTUTerrance Carter Jr. 23 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Stone Harrington Kick)0–35
- Q2 6:35TTUJ'Koby Williams 3 Yd Run (Upton Bellenfant Kick)0–28
- Q2 10:01TTUJ'Koby Williams 30 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Stone Harrington Kick)0–21
- Q1 6:27TTUCaleb Douglas 61 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Upton Bellenfant Kick)0–14
- Q1 12:00TTUCoy Eakin 38 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Stone Harrington Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TTU Elo 1639, ORST Elo 1365 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TTU -13.4 (81% to win) — 10.6 points clear of ORST's market line of -24. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ORST | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.8 (#106) | CORE overall | +33.7 (#5) |
| -9 / +6 | offense / defense | +4 / -30 |
| 1.38 | points / drive | 2.82 |
| 2.61 | allowed / drive | 0.95 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →