Jones AT&T StadiumClosing line: TTU -24 · TTU covered
Sat, Sep 13, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORST | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 |
| TTU | 14 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 45 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TTU Elo 1639, ORST Elo 1365) plus home-field advantage. That projects TTU -13.4 (84% to win) — 10.6 points of value on ORST versus the market line of -24.
TTU up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 183 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Oregon State 14, Texas Tech 45.
Yes — the model's pick (TTU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TTU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Behren Morton pass complete to Caleb Douglas for 61 yds for a TD (Upton Bellenfant KICK)
J'Koby Williams 30 Yd pass from Behren Morton (Stone Harrington Kick)
Karson Boschma 26 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Caleb Ojeda Kick)
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →