Oregon State vs. App State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ORSTTeam statsAPP
- Q4 1:40ORSTTeam Safety 23–27
- Q3 0:50APPDominic De Freitas 45 Yd Field Goal 21–27
- Q3 5:03ORSTCornell Hatcher Jr. 15 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Caleb Ojeda Kick)21–24
- Q3 8:41APPDavion Dozier 28 Yd pass from JJ Kohl (Dominic De Freitas Kick)14–24
- Q2 4:10ORSTDavid Wells Jr. 3 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Caleb Ojeda Kick)14–17
- Q2 9:32ORSTDavid Wells Jr. 30 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)7–17
- Q1 3:38APPRashod Dubinion 2 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)0–17
- Q1 6:49APPJJ Kohl 6 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)0–10
- Q1 8:21APPDominic De Freitas 49 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- APP played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ORST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.4 vs 3rd & 4.4
- APP lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 33% success rate
- PassMaalik Murphy 30/45, 358 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushAnthony Hankerson 19 CAR, 64 YDS
- RecTrent Walker 13 REC, 179 YDS
- PassJJ Kohl 13/28, 218 YDS, 1 TD
- RushRashod Dubinion 19 CAR, 98 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDavion Dozier 4 REC, 140 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAPP up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 5:03ORST +23%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Cornell Hatcher Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)
- Q3 0:50APP +21%
Dominic De Freitas 45 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 8:41APP +19%
JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 28 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)
- Q2 4:10ORST +19%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to David Wells Jr. for 3 yds for a TD (Caleb Ojeda KICK)
- Q1 6:49APP +15%
JJ Kohl run for 6 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)
- Q4 1:28ORST +14%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eddie Freauff for 8 yds to the APP 49
FAQ
What was the final score of Oregon State vs. App State?
Oregon State 23, App State 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (APP) was correct.
| ORST | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| 456 | Total yards | 354 |
| 358 | Passing yards | 218 |
| 98 | Rushing yards | 136 |
| 27 | First downs | 18 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 30/45 | Comp/Att | 13/28 |
| 8.0 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-27 | Penalties | 6-49 |
| 31:22 | Possession | 28:38 |
Costliest call
Q4 8:39 APP punt on 4th & 1 at APP 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:40ORSTTeam Safety 23–27
- Q3 0:50APPDominic De Freitas 45 Yd Field Goal 21–27
- Q3 5:03ORSTCornell Hatcher Jr. 15 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Caleb Ojeda Kick)21–24
- Q3 8:41APPDavion Dozier 28 Yd pass from JJ Kohl (Dominic De Freitas Kick)14–24
- Q2 4:10ORSTDavid Wells Jr. 3 Yd pass from Maalik Murphy (Caleb Ojeda Kick)14–17
- Q2 9:32ORSTDavid Wells Jr. 30 Yd Run (Caleb Ojeda Kick)7–17
- Q1 3:38APPRashod Dubinion 2 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)0–17
- Q1 6:49APPJJ Kohl 6 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)0–10
- Q1 8:21APPDominic De Freitas 49 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (APP Elo 1324, ORST Elo 1304 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects APP -3.2 (60% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ORST | APP | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.8 (#106) | CORE overall | -18.4 (#121) |
| -9 / +6 | offense / defense | -10 / +9 |
| 1.38 | points / drive | 1.87 |
| 2.61 | allowed / drive | 2.68 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →