Kidd Brewer Stadium
Sat, Oct 4, 7:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORST | 0 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 23 |
| APP | 17 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (APP Elo 1324, ORST Elo 1304) plus home-field advantage. That projects APP -3.2 (59% to win), essentially in line with the market.
APP up 6 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,662 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Oregon State 23, App State 27.
Yes — the model's pick (APP) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had APP pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Anthony Hankerson run for a loss of 2 yards to the APP 3
Maalik Murphy pass intercepted, touchback. Colton Phares return for no gain
JJ Kohl pass complete to Davion Dozier for 68 yds to the ORST 5 for a 1ST down
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →