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Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma: Final Score & Recap
Sat, Oct 25, 4:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MISS | 10 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 34 |
| OU | 3 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 26 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
OU 1781
MISS 1962
Projected spread
OU +4.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
MISS
64% to win
Market spread
OU -5.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
MISS
10.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
36%
OU · market 64%
Our model blends Elo ratings (OU Elo 1781, MISS Elo 1962) plus home-field advantage. That projects OU +4.8 (36% to win) — 10.3 points of value on MISS versus the market line of -5.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
OU (top)MISS (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: OU 0%
Advanced Matchup — 2025
MISS2025 season · higher-impact side highlightedOU
Offense
0.30
PPA / play
0.1048%
Success rate
40%1.29
Explosiveness
1.254.44
Pts / opportunity
3.7778%
Power success
64%Defense
0.13
PPA allowed / play
0.0040%
Success rate allowed
32%1.29
Explosiveness allowed
1.3217%
Havoc rate
23%18%
Stuff rate
29%Key matchups · Pro
- MISS pass offense (0.46 PPA) vs. OU pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge MISS.
- MISS rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. OU rush defense (-0.06 allowed) — edge MISS.
- OU rush offense (0.00 PPA) vs. MISS rush defense (0.19 allowed) — edge MISS.
Drive-by-drive
MISS 7/13 scoring drives← own end zone →OU 6/13 scoring drives
MISSFG8 pl, 47 yds· own 25Q1
OUFG8 pl, 51 yds· own 25Q1
MISSTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
OUPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 25Q1
MISSPUNT7 pl, 27 yds· own 15Q1
OUTD3 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q1
MISSPUNT4 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q2
OUSAF1 pl, -5 yds· own 5Q2
MISSFG12 pl, 47 yds· own 48Q2
OUDOWNS6 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q2
MISSTD9 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q2
OUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2
OUPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3
MISSDOWNS4 pl, -1 yds· own 16Q3
OUFG4 pl, -9 yds· opp 15Q3
MISSFG14 pl, 63 yds· own 25Q3
OUTD1 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q3
MISSPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q3
OUTD7 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q3
MISSTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
OUPUNT6 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q4
MISSPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 15Q4
MISSFG5 pl, 33 yds· own 47Q4
OUDOWNS8 pl, 45 yds· own 25Q4
MISSPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 30Q4
OUEND9 pl, 38 yds· own 17Q4
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
OU up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
53%
OU went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma?
Ole Miss 34, Oklahoma 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record — wins and losses — never fake locks.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had MISS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.