Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MISSTeam statsOU
- Q4 4:09MISSLucas Carneiro 37 Yd Field Goal 34–26
- Q4 11:33MISSTrace Bruckler 8 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–26
- Q3 1:04OUXavier Robinson 9 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)25–26
- Q3 5:45OUXavier Robinson 65 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)25–20
- Q3 5:57MISSLucas Carneiro 29 Yd Field Goal 25–13
- Q3 11:16OUTate Sandell 42 Yd Field Goal 22–13
- Q2 0:46MISSKewan Lacy 2 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)22–10
- Q2 7:33MISSLucas Carneiro 22 Yd Field Goal 15–10
- Q2 10:51MISSTeam Safety 12–10
- Q2 14:04OUIsaiah Sategna III 76 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)10–10
- Q1 6:07MISSKewan Lacy 28 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)10–3
- Q1 8:52OUTate Sandell 42 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 12:30MISSLucas Carneiro 45 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- OU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 33% success rate
- PassTrinidad Chambliss 24/44, 315 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKewan Lacy 27 CAR, 78 YDS, 2 TD
- RecWinston Watkins Jr. 4 REC, 111 YDS
- PassJohn Mateer 17/31, 223 YDS, 1 TD
- RushXavier Robinson 9 CAR, 109 YDS, 2 TD
- RecIsaiah Sategna III 6 REC, 131 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOU up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:33MISS +39%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q3 1:04OU +34%
Xavier Robinson run for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q3 5:45OU +21%
Xavier Robinson 65 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)
- Q2 14:04OU +19%
John Mateer pass complete to Isaiah Sategna III for 76 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)
- Q2 0:46MISS +19%
Kewan Lacy run for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
- Q1 6:07MISS +17%
Kewan Lacy run for 28 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma?
Ole Miss 34, Oklahoma 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
| MISS | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| 431 | Total yards | 359 |
| 315 | Passing yards | 223 |
| 116 | Rushing yards | 136 |
| 21 | First downs | 14 |
| 9-21 | 3rd down | 4-14 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 24/46 | Comp/Att | 17/32 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 7.0 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-50 | Penalties | 8-52 |
| 35:36 | Possession | 24:24 |
Costliest call
Q1 4:36 OU punt on 4th & 1 at OU 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:09MISSLucas Carneiro 37 Yd Field Goal 34–26
- Q4 11:33MISSTrace Bruckler 8 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–26
- Q3 1:04OUXavier Robinson 9 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)25–26
- Q3 5:45OUXavier Robinson 65 Yd Run (Tate Sandell Kick)25–20
- Q3 5:57MISSLucas Carneiro 29 Yd Field Goal 25–13
- Q3 11:16OUTate Sandell 42 Yd Field Goal 22–13
- Q2 0:46MISSKewan Lacy 2 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)22–10
- Q2 7:33MISSLucas Carneiro 22 Yd Field Goal 15–10
- Q2 10:51MISSTeam Safety 12–10
- Q2 14:04OUIsaiah Sategna III 76 Yd pass from John Mateer (Tate Sandell Kick)10–10
- Q1 6:07MISSKewan Lacy 28 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)10–3
- Q1 8:52OUTate Sandell 42 Yd Field Goal 3–3
- Q1 12:30MISSLucas Carneiro 45 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OU Elo 1781, MISS Elo 1962 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OU +4.8 (38% to win) — 10.3 points clear of MISS's market line of -5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MISS | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| +19.4 (#16) | CORE overall | +17.8 (#21) |
| +16 / -4 | offense / defense | -2 / -19 |
| 3.33 | points / drive | 1.93 |
| 2.07 | allowed / drive | 1.22 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →