Ole Miss vs. Georgia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MISSTeam statsUGA
- Q4 2:06UGAPeyton Woodring 42 Yd Field Goal 35–43
- Q4 7:29UGALawson Luckie 7 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)35–40
- Q4 12:56UGANate Frazier 3 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)35–33
- Q3 4:12MISSTrinidad Chambliss 2 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)35–26
- Q3 10:02UGALawson Luckie 3 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–26
- Q3 14:46MISSDe'Zhaun Stribling 75 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)28–20
- Q2 0:00UGAPeyton Woodring 35 Yd Field Goal 21–20
- Q2 2:10MISSKewan Lacy 1 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)21–17
- Q2 7:13UGAGunner Stockton 22 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)14–17
- Q2 10:53MISSKewan Lacy 1 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)14–10
- Q2 14:56UGALawson Luckie 11 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)7–10
- Q1 5:47MISSTrinidad Chambliss 7 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–3
- Q1 11:05UGAPeyton Woodring 51 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassTrinidad Chambliss 19/36, 263 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTrinidad Chambliss 9 CAR, 42 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDe'Zhaun Stribling 3 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
- PassGunner Stockton 26/31, 289 YDS, 4 TD
- RushNate Frazier 17 CAR, 72 YDS
- RecZachariah Branch 8 REC, 71 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMISS up 9 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,697 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 7:29UGA +39%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Lawson Luckie for 7 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
- Q4 12:56UGA +33%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Nate Frazier for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
- Q3 4:12MISS +26%
Trinidad Chambliss run for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
- Q3 14:46MISS +24%
Trinidad Chambliss pass complete to De'Zhaun Stribling for 75 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
- Q2 2:10MISS +23%
Kewan Lacy run for 1 yd for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
- Q4 2:06UGA +22%
Peyton Woodring 42 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Ole Miss vs. Georgia?
Ole Miss 35, Georgia 43.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UGA) was correct.
| MISS | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| 351 | Total yards | 510 |
| 263 | Passing yards | 289 |
| 88 | Rushing yards | 221 |
| 21 | First downs | 34 |
| 5-9 | 3rd down | 6-11 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 19/36 | Comp/Att | 26/31 |
| 7.3 | Yards per pass | 9.3 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-40 | Penalties | 3-37 |
| 22:21 | Possession | 37:39 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:06UGAPeyton Woodring 42 Yd Field Goal 35–43
- Q4 7:29UGALawson Luckie 7 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)35–40
- Q4 12:56UGANate Frazier 3 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)35–33
- Q3 4:12MISSTrinidad Chambliss 2 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)35–26
- Q3 10:02UGALawson Luckie 3 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–26
- Q3 14:46MISSDe'Zhaun Stribling 75 Yd pass from Trinidad Chambliss (Lucas Carneiro Kick)28–20
- Q2 0:00UGAPeyton Woodring 35 Yd Field Goal 21–20
- Q2 2:10MISSKewan Lacy 1 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)21–17
- Q2 7:13UGAGunner Stockton 22 Yd Run (Peyton Woodring Kick)14–17
- Q2 10:53MISSKewan Lacy 1 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)14–10
- Q2 14:56UGALawson Luckie 11 Yd pass from Gunner Stockton (Peyton Woodring Kick)7–10
- Q1 5:47MISSTrinidad Chambliss 7 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)7–3
- Q1 11:05UGAPeyton Woodring 51 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UGA Elo 2025, MISS Elo 1971 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UGA -4.6 (63% to win) — 2.9 points clear of MISS's market line of -7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesGeorgia leads 34–15–1 · 40% have been one-possession games
| MISS | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| +19.4 (#16) | CORE overall | +20.0 (#15) |
| +16 / -4 | offense / defense | +9 / -11 |
| 3.33 | points / drive | 3.08 |
| 2.07 | allowed / drive | 1.83 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| +4 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →