| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OU | 11 | 17 | 14 | 0 | 42 |
| TEM | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TEM Elo 1284, OU Elo 1679) plus home-field advantage. That projects TEM +13.4 (16% to win) — 10.6 points of value on TEM versus the market line of +24.
OU up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 218 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Oklahoma 42, Temple 3.
Yes — the model's pick (OU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had OU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
John Mateer run for 51 yds for a TD (Tate Sandell KICK)
John Mateer pass complete to Jaren Kanak for 23 yds to the TEM 9 for a 1ST down
Michael Hawkins Jr. run for 15 yds to the TEM 26 for a 1ST down
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