Ohio vs. Rutgers: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OHIOTeam statsRUTG
- Q4 11:11RUTGJai Patel 26 Yd Field Goal 31–34
- Q3 4:07OHIOJake Bruno 13 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (David Dellenbach Kick)31–31
- Q3 11:10OHIOParker Navarro 17 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)24–31
- Q2 0:08OHIODavid Dellenbach 30 Yd Field Goal 17–31
- Q2 3:22RUTGCam Miller 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Jai Patel Kick)14–31
- Q2 5:20RUTGKJ Duff 6 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)14–24
- Q2 8:34OHIOJake Bruno 14 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (David Dellenbach Kick)14–17
- Q2 13:52RUTGDT Sheffield 54 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)7–17
- Q2 14:52RUTGJai Patel 23 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 4:58OHIOMason Williams 4 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (David Dellenbach Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:52RUTGAntwan Raymond 14 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- OHIO lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 17% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassParker Navarro 21/31, 239 YDS, 3 TD
- RushParker Navarro 9 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChase Hendricks 9 REC, 115 YDS
- PassAthan Kaliakmanis 18/23, 252 YDS, 2 TD
- RushAntwan Raymond 14 CAR, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- RecIan Strong 7 REC, 100 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 5:17RUTG +21%
PENALTY OHIO False Start (Marsh,Joseph) 5 yards from OHIO28 to OHIO23. NO PLAY
- Q4 6:41RUTG +18%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete for a 1ST down Ohio Penalty, Defensive holding (Jalen Thomeson) to the RUTG 47 for a 1ST down
- Q1 9:52RUTG +18%
Antwan Raymond run for 14 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
- Q1 4:38OHIO +17%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 10 yds to the OHIO 48 for a 1ST down
- Q2 13:52RUTG +17%
Parker Navarro run for 3 yds to the RUTG 14
- Q4 6:41OHIO +16%
Antwan Raymond run for 2 yds to the RUTG 16
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio vs. Rutgers?
Ohio 31, Rutgers 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OHIO, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OHIO | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| 440 | Total yards | 399 |
| 239 | Passing yards | 252 |
| 201 | Rushing yards | 147 |
| 24 | First downs | 24 |
| 5-10 | 3rd down | 1-10 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 5-5 |
| 21/31 | Comp/Att | 18/23 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 11.0 |
| 6.5 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-37 | Penalties | 5-35 |
| 28:15 | Possession | 31:45 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:11RUTGJai Patel 26 Yd Field Goal 31–34
- Q3 4:07OHIOJake Bruno 13 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (David Dellenbach Kick)31–31
- Q3 11:10OHIOParker Navarro 17 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)24–31
- Q2 0:08OHIODavid Dellenbach 30 Yd Field Goal 17–31
- Q2 3:22RUTGCam Miller 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Jai Patel Kick)14–31
- Q2 5:20RUTGKJ Duff 6 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)14–24
- Q2 8:34OHIOJake Bruno 14 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (David Dellenbach Kick)14–17
- Q2 13:52RUTGDT Sheffield 54 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)7–17
- Q2 14:52RUTGJai Patel 23 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 4:58OHIOMason Williams 4 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (David Dellenbach Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:52RUTGAntwan Raymond 14 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (RUTG Elo 1522, OHIO Elo 1621 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects RUTG +1.6 (47% to win) — 15.6 points clear of OHIO's market line of -14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| OHIO | RUTG | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.1 (#66) | CORE overall | -4.9 (#79) |
| +1 / +2 | offense / defense | +10 / +14 |
| 2.50 | points / drive | 2.60 |
| 1.96 | allowed / drive | 3.60 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -6 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →