Ohio vs. Buffalo: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OHIOTeam statsBUF
- Q4 3:47BUFJasaiah Gathings 29 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)31–26
- Q4 5:24OHIODavid Dellenbach 33 Yd Field Goal 31–19
- Q4 14:07BUFTa'Quan Roberson 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–19
- Q3 8:25OHIOParker Navarro 6 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)28–13
- Q3 12:39BUFAl-Jay Henderson 23 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–13
- Q2 3:43OHIOChase Hendricks 15 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (David Dellenbach Kick)21–7
- Q2 10:01OHIOSieh Bangura 1 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)14–7
- Q2 12:16BUFChance Morrow 10 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:02OHIOMason Williams 11 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (David Dellenbach Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassParker Navarro 10/23, 147 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushParker Navarro 18 CAR, 121 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChase Hendricks 5 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTa'Quan Roberson 16/27, 270 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushTerrance Shelton Jr. 15 CAR, 57 YDS
- RecNik McMillan 5 REC, 122 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOHIO up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 12:16BUF +16%
Chance Morrow 10 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)
- Q2 10:01OHIO +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 S.Bangura rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 0:20OHIO +15%
#42 M.Haines punt 45 yards to the BUF07 #0 V.Snow return 5 yards to the BUF12 (#29 J.Haskins; #2 D.Walker)
- Q4 3:47BUF +15%
Jasaiah Gathings 29 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)
- Q1 8:02OHIO +13%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short right to #85 M.Williams caught at BUF10, for 11 yards to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 3:43OHIO +10%
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 P.Navarro pass complete short middle to #7 C.Hendricks caught at BUF00, for 15 yards to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio vs. Buffalo?
Ohio 31, Buffalo 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OHIO) was correct.
| OHIO | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 506 | Total yards | 370 |
| 147 | Passing yards | 270 |
| 359 | Rushing yards | 100 |
| 27 | First downs | 19 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 5-12 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 10/23 | Comp/Att | 16/28 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 9.6 |
| 6.6 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 4-45 |
| 38:04 | Possession | 21:56 |
Costliest call
Q1 4:30 BUF punt on 4th & 3 at OHIO 47. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.65 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:47BUFJasaiah Gathings 29 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)31–26
- Q4 5:24OHIODavid Dellenbach 33 Yd Field Goal 31–19
- Q4 14:07BUFTa'Quan Roberson 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)28–19
- Q3 8:25OHIOParker Navarro 6 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)28–13
- Q3 12:39BUFAl-Jay Henderson 23 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–13
- Q2 3:43OHIOChase Hendricks 15 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (David Dellenbach Kick)21–7
- Q2 10:01OHIOSieh Bangura 1 Yd Run (David Dellenbach Kick)14–7
- Q2 12:16BUFChance Morrow 10 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:02OHIOMason Williams 11 Yd pass from Parker Navarro (David Dellenbach Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BUF Elo 1288, OHIO Elo 1572 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BUF +9 (29% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOhio leads 19–10 · Ohio has won 4 straight · 31% have been one-possession games
| OHIO | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.1 (#66) | CORE overall | -19.7 (#124) |
| +1 / +2 | offense / defense | -15 / +5 |
| 2.50 | points / drive | 1.56 |
| 1.96 | allowed / drive | 1.93 |
| 19% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| -6 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →