Ohio
7-4·Mid-American· Elo 1572
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO | 7 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 31 |
| BUF | 0 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 26 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BUF Elo 1288, OHIO Elo 1572) plus home-field advantage. That projects BUF +9 (25% to win), essentially in line with the market.
OHIO up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Ohio 31, Buffalo 26.
Yes — the model's pick (OHIO) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had OHIO pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
No Huddle #86 J.Bruno rush middle for 48 yards gain to the BUF10 (#32 L.Sperling), 1ST DOWN
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete deep left to #0 V.Snow caught at OHI47, for 58 yards to the OHI22, out of bounds at OHI22, 1ST DOWN
Jasaiah Gathings 29 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)
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