Ohio State vs. Michigan: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OSUTeam statsMICH
- Q4 8:10OSUJayden Fielding 23 Yd Field Goal 27–9
- Q3 7:35OSUCarnell Tate 50 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)24–9
- Q2 0:16OSUBrandon Inniss 4 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)17–9
- Q2 5:24MICHDominic Zvada 49 Yd Field Goal 10–9
- Q2 11:44OSUJeremiah Smith 35 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)10–6
- Q1 4:33OSUJayden Fielding 24 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 9:42MICHDominic Zvada 25 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 12:37MICHDominic Zvada 45 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MICH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and OSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.7 vs 3rd & 3.8
- MICH lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 28% success rate
- PassJulian Sayin 19/26, 233 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushBo Jackson 22 CAR, 117 YDS
- RecCarnell Tate 5 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBryce Underwood 8/18, 63 YDS, 1 INT
- RushJordan Marshall 7 CAR, 61 YDS
- RecDonaven McCulley 3 REC, 46 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOSU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 7:35OSU +7%
Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete deep middle to #17 C.Tate caught at UOM06, for 50 yards to the UOM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Ohio State vs. Michigan?
Ohio State 27, Michigan 9.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
| OSU | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| 419 | Total yards | 163 |
| 233 | Passing yards | 63 |
| 186 | Rushing yards | 100 |
| 23 | First downs | 9 |
| 11-17 | 3rd down | 1-9 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 19/26 | Comp/Att | 8/18 |
| 9.0 | Yards per pass | 3.5 |
| 4.0 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-72 | Penalties | 1-3 |
| 40:01 | Possession | 19:59 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:07 OSU punt on 4th & 2 at MICH 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.19 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:10OSUJayden Fielding 23 Yd Field Goal 27–9
- Q3 7:35OSUCarnell Tate 50 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)24–9
- Q2 0:16OSUBrandon Inniss 4 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)17–9
- Q2 5:24MICHDominic Zvada 49 Yd Field Goal 10–9
- Q2 11:44OSUJeremiah Smith 35 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Jayden Fielding Kick)10–6
- Q1 4:33OSUJayden Fielding 24 Yd Field Goal 3–6
- Q1 9:42MICHDominic Zvada 25 Yd Field Goal 0–6
- Q1 12:37MICHDominic Zvada 45 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MICH Elo 1825, OSU Elo 2158 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MICH +10.9 (25% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMichigan leads 62–53–6 · 39% have been one-possession games
| OSU | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| +39.2 (#1) | CORE overall | +17.4 (#22) |
| +14 / -26 | offense / defense | +11 / -6 |
| 3.43 | points / drive | 2.70 |
| 1.15 | allowed / drive | 1.97 |
| 13% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →