| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OSU | 3 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 27 |
| MICH | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MICH Elo 1825, OSU Elo 2158) plus home-field advantage. That projects MICH +10.9 (21% to win), essentially in line with the market.
OSU up 15 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,206 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Ohio State 27, Michigan 9.
Yes — the model's pick (OSU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had OSU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(11:50) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete deep right to #4 J.Smith caught at UOM08, for 35 yards to the UOM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:44, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL UPHELD #38 J.Fielding kick attempt good (H: #42 J.McGuire, LS: #43 J.Ferlmann)
(07:42) Shotgun #10 J.Sayin pass complete deep middle to #17 C.Tate caught at UOM06, for 50 yards to the UOM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:35, 1ST DOWN #38 J.Fielding kick attempt good (H: #42 J.McGuire, LS: #43 J.Ferlmann)
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 J.Marshall rush left for 36 yards gain to the OSU39 (#18 J.McClain), 1ST DOWN
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