Beaver StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NU | 3 | 10 | 0 | 9 | 22 |
| PSU | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
PSU 2028
NU 1478
Projected spread
PSU -24.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
PSU
96% to win
Market spread
PSU -20.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
PSU
3.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
96%
PSU · market 89%
Our model blends Elo ratings (PSU Elo 2028, NU Elo 1478) plus home-field advantage. That projects PSU -24.4 (96% to win) — 3.9 points of value on PSU versus the market line of -20.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
PSU (top)NU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: PSU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- PSU pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. NU pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge PSU.
- NU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. PSU pass defense (0.18 allowed) — edge NU.
- PSU rush offense (0.21 PPA) vs. NU rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge PSU.
Drive-by-drive
NU 5/9 scoring drives← own end zone →PSU 3/8 scoring drives
NUPUNT6 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q1
PSUTD12 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q1
PSUINT5 pl, 21 yds· opp 31Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
PSU up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
53%
PSU went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Northwestern vs. Penn State?
Northwestern 22, Penn State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked PSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had PSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.