Northwestern State vs. Cincinnati: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Northwestern State0-1

00

Cincinnati1-1

▸0070

Final

Nippert Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
NORT	0	0	0	0	0
CIN	35	21	7	7	70

NORTTeam statsCIN

102Total yards605

34Pass362

68Rush243

6First downs26

0-123rd down2-4

1Turnovers0

39:15Possession20:45

Scoring plays

• Q4 5:00CINIsaiah Johnson 42 Yd pass from Samaj Jones (Dino Beslagic Kick)0–70
• Q3 4:14CINChance Williams 3 Yd Run (Dino Beslagic Kick)0–63
• Q2 0:16CINCyrus Allen 29 Yd pass from Brady Lichtenberg (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–56
• Q2 5:38CINTawee Walker 15 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–49
• Q2 9:40CINBrendan Sorsby 23 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–42
• Q1 2:46CINIsaiah Johnson 8 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–35
• Q1 4:11CINJoe Royer 2 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–28
• Q1 7:07CINTawee Walker 10 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–21
• Q1 11:18CINCaleb Goodie 55 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:24CINJoe Royer 21 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

CIN −48.5

Against the number

CIN covered

line CIN −48.5

What the numbers say

• NORT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CIN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 4.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

CIN 100%50%NORT 100%

Kickoff121 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

CIN (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CIN 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

CIN −48.5

Closing total

56.0

Model line

—

Actual result

NORT 0 – 70 CIN

Leaders

Northwestern State

• PassAbram Johnston 7/11, 32 YDS
• RushKolbe Burrell 12 CAR, 31 YDS
• RecLuke Carter 1 REC, 11 YDS

Cincinnati

• PassBrendan Sorsby 15/15, 253 YDS, 5 TD
• RushTawee Walker 6 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
• RecCaleb Goodie Sr. 3 REC, 106 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

29.1sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

101

Points / snap

0.69

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

CIN up 63 entering the 4th quarter. Across 100 historically comparable game states (within ±5 pts and ±8 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

CIN went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WSMU vs Tulsa69-10WAuburn vs Alabama A&M73-3WSMU vs Prairie View A&M69-0WSouth Alabama vs Northwestern State87-10WCentral Arkansas vs Texas College70-2

Fourth downs

16 calls

NORT gave up 1.1 points to the model on fourth down.NORT 8/12 · CIN 2/2 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Northwestern State vs. Cincinnati?

Northwestern State 0, Cincinnati 70.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (CIN) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

NORT

CIN

20%

Success rate

73%

-0.09

EPA / pass

1.41

-0.30

EPA / rush

0.46

24%

Early-down success

75%

28%

Pass success

83%

16%

Rush success

64%

0%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

31%

31%

Stuffed rush rate

14%

36%

Pass rate

45%

7.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.5

NORT

7.8 yards to go on 3rd down

50 scrimmage snaps

CIN

4.5 yards to go on 3rd down

51 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

NORT		CIN
102	Total yards	605
34	Passing yards	362
68	Rushing yards	243
6	First downs	26
0-12	3rd down	2-4
1-2	4th down	0-0
10/16	Comp/Att	21/23
2.1	Yards per pass	15.7
1.9	Yards per rush	9.3
1	Turnovers	0
5-42	Penalties	6-65
39:15	Possession	20:45

Fourth downs

16 calls

NORT

8/12 with the model

−1.1 pts · −0.0% win prob

CIN

2/2 with the model

nothing given up

Costliest call

Q2 13:21 NORT punt on 4th & 12 at CIN 37. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.51 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

NORT 0/13 scoring drives← own end zone →CIN 10/12 scoring drives

CINTD4 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1

NORTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 11Q1

CINTD1 pl, 55 yds· own 45Q1

NORTPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 16Q1

CINTD4 pl, 42 yds· opp 42Q1

NORTPUNT3 pl, -12 yds· own 25Q1

CINTD3 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q1

NORTFUM2 pl, 8 yds· own 22Q1

CINTD2 pl, 30 yds· opp 30Q1

NORTPUNT9 pl, 38 yds· own 25Q1

CINTD8 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q2

NORTPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 25Q2

CINTD6 pl, 67 yds· own 33Q2

NORTPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 25Q2

CINPUNT3 pl, 4 yds· own 46Q2

NORTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 2Q2

CINTD3 pl, 53 yds· own 47Q2

NORTEND1 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q2

NORTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q3

CINTD7 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q3

NORTDOWNS11 pl, 44 yds· own 25Q3

CINTD5 pl, 69 yds· own 31Q4

NORTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 25Q4

CINPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 28Q4

NORTEND4 pl, 30 yds· own 38Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 5:00CINIsaiah Johnson 42 Yd pass from Samaj Jones (Dino Beslagic Kick)0–70
• Q3 4:14CINChance Williams 3 Yd Run (Dino Beslagic Kick)0–63
• Q2 0:16CINCyrus Allen 29 Yd pass from Brady Lichtenberg (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–56
• Q2 5:38CINTawee Walker 15 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–49
• Q2 9:40CINBrendan Sorsby 23 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–42
• Q1 2:46CINIsaiah Johnson 8 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–35
• Q1 4:11CINJoe Royer 2 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–28
• Q1 7:07CINTawee Walker 10 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–21
• Q1 11:18CINCaleb Goodie 55 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–14
• Q1 13:24CINJoe Royer 21 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →