Jerry Richardson StadiumConference game
Fri, Oct 24, 11:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNT | 7 | 10 | 10 | 27 | 54 |
| CLT | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 20 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CLT Elo 1054, UNT Elo 1648) plus home-field advantage. That projects CLT +21.4 (6% to win) — 4.1 points of value on CLT versus the market line of +25.5.
UNT up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
North Texas 54, Charlotte 20.
Yes — the model's pick (UNT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UNT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short middle to #10 W.Young caught at UNT30, for 70 yards to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:03, 1ST DOWN #41 S.Evans rush attempt failed
(11:34) Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass complete deep middle to #5 J.Nicholas caught at UNT18, for 64 yards to the UNT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:27, 1ST DOWN #37 L.Boyd kick attempt good (H: #95 B.Long, LS: #39 C.Garfield)
(01:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 A.Gray rush middle for 32 yards gain to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:06, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UNT UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#20 A.Gray) 15 yards from CLT00 to CLT03 #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates)
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