North Texas vs. Charlotte: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

North Texas6-1

▸

Charlotte1-6

Final

Jerry Richardson StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
UNT	7	10	10	27	54
CLT	10	7	3	0	20

UNTTeam statsCLT

754Total yards399

608Pass295

146Rush104

31First downs13

4-113rd down4-16

2Turnovers0

30:38Possession29:22

Q4 1:06UNTAshton Gray 32 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)54–20
Q4 7:04UNTKiefer Sibley 45 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)47–20
Q4 9:03UNTWyatt Young 70 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)40–20
Q4 12:26UNTCaleb Hawkins 7 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)34–20
Q3 0:17UNTKali Nguma 41 Yd Field Goal 27–20
Q3 5:53UNTKiefer Sibley 1 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)24–20
Q3 8:17CLTLiam Boyd 20 Yd Field Goal 17–20
Q2 4:14UNTCaleb Hawkins 6 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)17–17
Q2 8:30UNTKali Nguma 29 Yd Field Goal 10–17
Q2 11:27CLTJaven Nicholas 64 Yd pass from Grayson Loftis (Liam Boyd Kick)7–17
Q1 1:15CLTJaven Nicholas 33 Yd pass from Grayson Loftis (Liam Boyd Kick)7–10
Q1 7:53CLTLiam Boyd 24 Yd Field Goal 7–3
Q1 12:25UNTCameron Dorner 41 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Model line

UNT −21.4

market UNT −25.5

Biggest swing

UNT +24%

Q3 5:53

Against the number

UNT covered

line UNT −25.5

What the numbers say

UNT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CLT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.3 vs 3rd & 6.4

CLT favored ↑50%UNT favored ↓

GridpexUNT 100%

Closing line

UNT −25.5

Closing total

61.0

Model line

UNT −21.4

Actual result

UNT 54 – 20 CLT

North Texas

PassDrew Mestemaker 37/49, 608 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
RushKiefer Sibley 7 CAR, 71 YDS, 2 TD
RecWyatt Young 9 REC, 190 YDS, 1 TD

Charlotte

PassGrayson Loftis 20/36, 295 YDS, 2 TD
RushJariel Cobb 13 CAR, 59 YDS
RecJaven Nicholas 7 REC, 187 YDS, 2 TD

24.9sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

143

Points / snap

0.52

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

UNT up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

81%

UNT went on to win

A solid but not safe lead

Most comparable games

WNorthern Illinois vs Boston College27-24 WGeorgia State vs Rhode Island42-35 WWestern Kentucky vs South Florida41-24 WEastern Michigan vs Howard33-23 LArmy vs UL Monroe13-17

Q3 5:53UNT +24%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN
Q2 11:27CLT +20%
Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass complete deep middle to #5 J.Nicholas caught at UNT18, for 64 yards to the UNT00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
Q2 4:14UNT +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short middle to #24 C.Hawkins caught at CLT09, for 6 yards to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN
Q3 8:17CLT +17%
#37 L.Boyd field goal attempt from 20 yards GOOD
Q1 1:15CLT +11%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass complete short right to #5 J.Nicholas caught at UNT28, for 33 yards to the UNT00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
Q3 0:17UNT +10%
#40 K.Nguma field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD

FAQ

What was the final score of North Texas vs. Charlotte?

North Texas 54, Charlotte 20.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (UNT) was correct.

UNT

CLT

56%

Success rate

39%

0.57

EPA / pass

0.34

0.21

EPA / rush

0.01

59%

Early-down success

44%

60%

Pass success

39%

48%

Rush success

40%

24%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

11%

15%

Stuffed rush rate

20%

66%

Pass rate

61%

9.3

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.4

UNT

9.3 yards to go on 3rd down

79 scrimmage snaps

CLT

6.4 yards to go on 3rd down

64 scrimmage snaps

UNT		CLT
754	Total yards	399
608	Passing yards	295
146	Rushing yards	104
31	First downs	13
4-11	3rd down	4-16
1-2	4th down	1-2
37/49	Comp/Att	20/36
12.4	Yards per pass	8.2
5.0	Yards per rush	3.9
2	Turnovers	0
6-50	Penalties	6-60
30:38	Possession	29:22

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

CLT 1054

UNT 1648

Projected spread

CLT +21.4

incl. home edge

Model pick

UNT

90% to win

Market spread

CLT +25.5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

CLT

4.1 pts apart

Win prob: model / mkt

10%

CLT · market 7%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLT Elo 1054, UNT Elo 1648 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CLT +21.4 (10% to win) — 4.1 points clear of CLT's market line of +25.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2025

nationally ranked

UNT2025 season · national rank shownCLT

511.41st

Total yards / game

285.8132nd

7.23rd

Yards / play

4.6130th

317.32nd

Passing yards / game

204.094th

194.125th

Rushing yards / game

81.8135th

45.9%24th

3rd down %

34.5%111th

382.177th

Yards allowed / game

472.0135th

42.4%105th

3rd down % allowed

43.6%116th

+914th

Turnover margin

-8117th

5.647th

Penalties / game

6.172nd

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Opponent-adjusted profile2025

UNT		CLT
+11.9 (#34)	CORE overall	-33.1 (#135)
+18 / +6	offense / defense	-23 / +10
4.00	points / drive	0.88
2.36	allowed / drive	2.98
14%	three-and-outs	40%
+7	pass over expected	+1

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

Game Info

Kickoff: Fri, Oct 24, 7:00 PM EDT
Venue: Jerry Richardson Stadium
Setting: Conference game
Model line: UNT -21.4

The Model's Pick

North Texas

to win · 90%

✓ Hit

Projected spreadUNT -21.4

Market93%

Game Leaders

North Texas

Pass Drew Mestemaker37/49, 608 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
Rush Kiefer Sibley7 car, 71 yds, 2 TD
Rec Wyatt Young9 rec, 190 yds, 1 TD

Charlotte

Pass Grayson Loftis20/36, 295 yds, 2 TD
Rush Jariel Cobb13 car, 59 yds
Rec Javen Nicholas7 rec, 187 yds, 2 TD

Biggest Plays

North Texas+7.2 EPA
(09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 D.Mestemaker pass complete short middle to #10 W.Young caught at UNT30, for 70 yards to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:03, 1ST DOWN #41 S.Evans rush attempt failed
Charlotte+5.1 EPA
(11:34) Shotgun #12 G.Loftis pass complete deep middle to #5 J.Nicholas caught at UNT18, for 64 yards to the UNT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:27, 1ST DOWN #37 L.Boyd kick attempt good (H: #95 B.Long, LS: #39 C.Garfield)
North Texas+4.3 EPA
(01:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 A.Gray rush middle for 32 yards gain to the CLT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:06, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UNT UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#20 A.Gray) 15 yards from CLT00 to CLT03 #40 K.Nguma kick attempt good (H: #41 S.Evans, LS: #48 C.Yates)

UNTTeam statsCLT

Scoring plays

How the model called it

What the numbers say

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of North Texas vs. Charlotte?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2025

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

North Texas vs. Charlotte: Final Score & Recap

UNTTeam statsCLT

How the model called it

What the numbers say

What was the final score of North Texas vs. Charlotte?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups