| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNT | 21 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 45 |
| ARMY | 7 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 38 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARMY Elo 1615, UNT Elo 1585) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARMY -3.6 (61% to win) — 6.1 points of value on ARMY versus the market line of +2.5.
UNT up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
North Texas 45, Army 38.
No — the model picked ARMY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had ARMY pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Brady Anderson for 68 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)
Briggs Bartosh run for 75 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)
Makenzie McGill II run for 3 yds to the ARMY 44 Makenzie McGill II fumbled, recovered by UNT Kalib Fortner
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →
