North Texas vs. Army: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNTTeam statsARMY
- OT 0:00UNTCaleb Hawkins 3 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)45–38
- Q4 0:09ARMYDawson Jones 23 Yd Field Goal 38–38
- Q4 2:56ARMYBrady Anderson 68 Yd pass from Dewayne Coleman (Dawson Jones Kick)38–35
- Q4 9:03UNTCaleb Hawkins 21 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)38–28
- Q4 11:27ARMYDewayne Coleman 5 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)31–28
- Q3 6:25UNTKali Nguma 23 Yd Field Goal 31–21
- Q3 11:07ARMYHayden Reed 37 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)28–21
- Q2 0:37ARMYSamari Howard 17 Yd pass from Dewayne Coleman (Dawson Jones Kick)28–14
- Q2 6:35UNTWyatt Young 6 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)28–7
- Q1 1:14ARMYBriggs Bartosh 75 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)21–7
- Q1 1:24UNTCaleb Hawkins 7 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)21–0
- Q1 3:21UNTMakenzie McGill II 6 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:22UNTCaleb Hawkins 4 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDrew Mestemaker 26/36, 249 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMakenzie McGill 19 CAR, 101 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMiles Coleman 8 REC, 74 YDS
- PassDewayne Coleman 6/11, 101 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDewayne Coleman 23 CAR, 117 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBrady Anderson 1 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUNT up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:00UNT +98%
D. Mestemaker takes a knee
- Q4 0:09ARMY +91%
Dawson Jones 23 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 2:49UNT +40%
Makenzie McGill II run for 3 yds to the ARMY 44 Makenzie McGill II fumbled, recovered by UNT Kalib Fortner
- Q4 2:56ARMY +34%
Dewayne Coleman pass complete to Brady Anderson for 68 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)
- Q4 11:27ARMY +31%
Dewayne Coleman run for 5 yds for a TD (Dawson Jones KICK)
- Q4 2:44ARMY +25%
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the ARMY 46
FAQ
What was the final score of North Texas vs. Army?
North Texas 45, Army 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARMY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UNT | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| 478 | Total yards | 488 |
| 249 | Passing yards | 101 |
| 229 | Rushing yards | 387 |
| 26 | First downs | 26 |
| 7-12 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 3-5 |
| 26/36 | Comp/Att | 6/14 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 5.7 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 7-50 | Penalties | 1-15 |
| 27:59 | Possession | 32:01 |
Costliest call
Q2 8:52 UNT go for it on 4th & 8 at ARMY 34. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.26 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00UNTCaleb Hawkins 3 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)45–38
- Q4 0:09ARMYDawson Jones 23 Yd Field Goal 38–38
- Q4 2:56ARMYBrady Anderson 68 Yd pass from Dewayne Coleman (Dawson Jones Kick)38–35
- Q4 9:03UNTCaleb Hawkins 21 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)38–28
- Q4 11:27ARMYDewayne Coleman 5 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)31–28
- Q3 6:25UNTKali Nguma 23 Yd Field Goal 31–21
- Q3 11:07ARMYHayden Reed 37 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)28–21
- Q2 0:37ARMYSamari Howard 17 Yd pass from Dewayne Coleman (Dawson Jones Kick)28–14
- Q2 6:35UNTWyatt Young 6 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)28–7
- Q1 1:14ARMYBriggs Bartosh 75 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)21–7
- Q1 1:24UNTCaleb Hawkins 7 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)21–0
- Q1 3:21UNTMakenzie McGill II 6 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:22UNTCaleb Hawkins 4 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARMY Elo 1615, UNT Elo 1585 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARMY -3.6 (61% to win) — 6.1 points clear of ARMY's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesArmy leads 6–3 · 44% have been one-possession games
| UNT | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.9 (#34) | CORE overall | -3.5 (#74) |
| +18 / +6 | offense / defense | -0 / +3 |
| 4.00 | points / drive | 2.63 |
| 2.36 | allowed / drive | 2.41 |
| 14% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +7 | pass over expected | -34 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →