North Carolina vs. Wake Forest: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UNCTeam statsWAKE
- Q4 0:22WAKERobby Ashford 2 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)12–28
- Q4 11:03UNCRece Verhoff 47 Yd Field Goal 12–21
- Q3 5:54WAKECarlos Hernandez 70 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Connor Calvert Kick)9–21
- Q3 6:46UNCRece Verhoff 42 Yd Field Goal 9–14
- Q2 0:00UNCRece Verhoff 57 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q2 1:47WAKEDemond Claiborne 12 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)3–14
- Q2 12:54UNCRece Verhoff 40 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 13:11WAKECarlos Hernandez 51 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassGio Lopez 21/36, 201 YDS
- RushDemon June 9 CAR, 32 YDS
- RecJake Johnson 5 REC, 54 YDS
- PassRobby Ashford 15/25, 191 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDemond Claiborne 23 CAR, 98 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCarlos Hernandez 6 REC, 100 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWAKE up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,519 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:47WAKE +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Claiborne rush middle for 12 yards gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 13:11WAKE +16%
Carlos Hernandez 51 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)
- Q3 5:54WAKE +16%
Carlos Hernandez 70 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Connor Calvert Kick)
- Q3 6:46UNC +14%
#90 R.Verhoff field goal attempt from 42 yards GOOD
- Q4 8:07WAKE +8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 R.Ashford rush left for 4 yards gain to the Wake43 (#20 J.Thompson) PENALTY Wake Holding (#4 S.Berkhalter) 10 yards from Wake39 to Wake29. NO PLAY
- Q2 12:54UNC +8%
#90 R.Verhoff field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of North Carolina vs. Wake Forest?
North Carolina 12, Wake Forest 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WAKE) was correct.
| UNC | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 257 | Total yards | 414 |
| 201 | Passing yards | 191 |
| 56 | Rushing yards | 223 |
| 16 | First downs | 19 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 21/37 | Comp/Att | 15/25 |
| 5.4 | Yards per pass | 7.6 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 5.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-45 | Penalties | 3-40 |
| 30:02 | Possession | 29:58 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:51 WAKE punt on 4th & 1 at WAKE 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.01 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:22WAKERobby Ashford 2 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)12–28
- Q4 11:03UNCRece Verhoff 47 Yd Field Goal 12–21
- Q3 5:54WAKECarlos Hernandez 70 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Connor Calvert Kick)9–21
- Q3 6:46UNCRece Verhoff 42 Yd Field Goal 9–14
- Q2 0:00UNCRece Verhoff 57 Yd Field Goal 6–14
- Q2 1:47WAKEDemond Claiborne 12 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)3–14
- Q2 12:54UNCRece Verhoff 40 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 13:11WAKECarlos Hernandez 51 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WAKE Elo 1412, UNC Elo 1393 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WAKE -3.2 (60% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNorth Carolina leads 71–34–2 · 41% have been one-possession games
| UNC | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.5 (#97) | CORE overall | +9.3 (#42) |
| -8 / +3 | offense / defense | -4 / -13 |
| 1.67 | points / drive | 2.03 |
| 2.43 | allowed / drive | 1.84 |
| 37% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →